Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers @ OKC Thunder -8.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 2:30 PM CT on NBA TV
The absolute demolition jobs OKC is putting on visiting teams is almost over. They have this faux doubleheader today and Tuesday with the Lakers, which I think starts out the way we’ve come to expect from Thunder home games. The Thunder have climbed above 70% ATS for their home games, going 26-11-2 with a plus-16.3 average margin of victory and plus-5.4 average cover margin, all of which lead the league.
And the best case scenario for Thunder backers today is that they’ll be hungry after a lopsided loss in Houston on Friday night. OKC has covered 9 of their past 10 home games while laying some very big numbers, and I have to back them here in this penultimate opportunity for the regular season.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Sacramento Kings @ Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 First Quarter (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 5:00 PM CT on NBA TV
As we wind down the season, the clock is also ticking on this angle of backing the Cavs in the first quarter at home. The league’s best team for average first quarter margin at home only has this and two other opportunities left, and I’m not missing out on this one. I’m not impressed with Sacramento one bit, and the Kings have really struggled on this road trip out east against mediocre competition.
The level of competition here is top-tier, and the Cavs will also be out for revenge after blowing the meeting in Sacramento two weeks ago. But Cleveland was strong in the first quarter of that game, just as they are in pretty much every first quarter this season, while the Kings have been slow starters all year. The Cavs should make a statement here, and this number is too good to pass up given their record in home first quarters.
NBA (1 Unit) New York Knicks Team Total Over 118.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MSG
I’m still targeting this Suns defense that has cratered over the past week or so. The past 5 games for Phoenix have seen them allow 132.0 PPG as they’ve turned into a team of traffic cones on the defensive end of the floor. It’s not going to get any easier for a struggling defense tonight, as the Knicks get a big boost with the expected return of Jalen Brunson to the lineup.
With their full lineup available for the first meeting back in November, the Knicks dropped 138 points on the Suns, so having that full complement of firepower is important. The Knicks are also on no rest with travel here so I’d anticipate a higher-scoring game in general, but particularly out of New York who should have no trouble running it up on an awful defense.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Denver Nuggets First Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Altitude
There are some injury concerns in this game that are likely holding the total down somewhat, but it’s a Nuggets home game so I’m far less bothered by the injury report. Denver comes into this game struggling, taking three unfortunate losses in a row, so they should be highly motivated tonight. That generally means running it up in the first quarter, and the Pacers should have no problem playing at the kind of tempo Denver will want for the start of this game. With Denver’s defensive struggles as the league’s most generous first quarter defense, both teams should have plenty of success out of the gates tonight which sends this over a total I expected to see in the 60’s.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Guardians/LA Angels Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:07 PM CT on CLEGuardians TV
The first two games of this series saw 14 runs apiece, and with backend starters going for this rubber match I’m expecting the runs to keep coming in bunches. Slugfests have been the surprising norm for the Angels so far, with their games going 4-2-2 over this total. Pitching was always going to be a problem for the Angels, but the contributions of their offense has been the big surprise, and we should see more of the same with lower-tier starting pitching going for both teams. This afternoon game in Anaheim with the wind blowing out should make for great hitting conditions, and I think both teams capitalize to send this over the total.
Degenerates
MLB Houston Astros/Minnesota Twins Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on SCHN
The Twins have actually shown a pulse with the bats in three of the past four games, and that should continue today against Ronel Blanco. The Astros righty pitched well above his head last season and was due for regression this year, which already hit in his first outing and should continue today. But if Chris Paddack can’t fix whatever is broken, then teams are going to tee off on him and a good hitting club like Houston will have more success today. Slightly warmer temperatures and a big wind blowing out of Target Field create much more favorable conditions for the offenses here, and they should find a way over this total against mediocre-at-best pitching.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-11 (+1.9 Units) – Recommend: Tail
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.