Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Washington Wizards/Toronto Raptors Over 231 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:00 PM CT on TSN
Who’s signing up to put in defensive effort for this game? Two teams in full tank mode and counting down the days of this final week don’t seem like the type to do much more than scrimmage here. Both the Wizards and Raptors are already bottom-5 teams in defensive efficiency, with Washington also dead last in points allowed.
Toronto meanwhile had given up 120-plus in 10 of their past 15 games before Friday’s shocking upset in Milwaukee. They may have celebrated that a little too much as well, so don’t expect either team to put in enough work on the defensive end that would keep the game under.
NBA (0.75 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns -6 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:00 PM CT on League Pass
As a Wolves fan, what I saw out of the Suns on Friday night scares me. This team at full strength and playing well is seriously dangerous in the West, and I think they prove it again tonight. These teams sit astride the play-in tournament cut line with Phoenix a game up, and I’m sure they’d want to keep it that way.
The Suns have already owned New Orleans this season with two double-digit wins including last week. Plus they’re facing a Pelicans team having the polar opposite injury situation with Brandon Ingram still out, Zion Williamson questionable, and other key players dinged up. I’ll lay it here with the Suns as long as it’s below the key NBA number of 7 points given how these teams have looked the past week.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers -0.5 First Five Innings (+110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
The baseball season might only be a few games old, but basic principles still apply. One of the big ones is fading a pitcher in the start after a no-hitter, which we have with Ronel Blanco going again for Houston. It never seems to go well for the pitcher in their next start, and Blanco is in the unfortunate situation of having to face the Rangers offense. Texas has already covered the first five run line in both games of this series, and should be able to count on another solid start from Dane Dunning who has good numbers against Houston. At a plus-juice return I’m jumping in on this early-season basic principle play.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2187-1980 ATS (+97.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.