Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports MW
These teams went for 15 runs last night and I think they’ll be back for more tonight. This game features far worse starting pitchers than last night, and these offenses are more than capable of taking advantage. Arizona actually hasn’t been that great against righthanded pitching this season, but that should change tonight against Kyle Gibson who was hit hard in his last outing. And with Ryne Nelson starting for the D’Backs, that gives St Louis another opportunity to put up plenty of runs against a pitcher who has struggled his whole career at Chase Field. Add in two average-at -best bullpens and I think we see another slugfest tonight.
MLB (0.75 Unit) San Diego Padres/LA Dodgers Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:10 PM CT on ESPN+
The Dodger offense cooled off somewhat in the cool Minnesota weather this week, but being back in LA is obviously what’s needed for plenty of scoring. The Dodgers are 6-1-1 to the over at home this season including last night’s 15-run game with the Padres, and I see reason for another over tonight. With two righthanded starters in this game, we get two offenses that are elite against that split. The Padres have scored the most runs in baseball against righties, and these teams are second and third for weighted runs created. The Dodgers are a top-5 offense in just about every basic and advanced metric against righties, so I’m trusting the offenses against two replacement-level starters tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2196-1992 ATS (+97.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.