Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Kris Bubic Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 6:15 PM CT on FOX
The Royals are on the rise, and a big factor in their turnaround has been the starting pitching. I think they get another good start here out of Bubic, who has a serious natural advantage over this Orioles team he’s facing. Being lefthanded makes him the clear choice to back over a Baltimore offense that is 24th in hits, 30th in batting average, 29th in on-base percentage, and 30th in weighted on-base percentage against lefties this season. And Bubic already held them down once this season a month ago, allowing just 4 hits in a strong win. The KC lefty has shown consistent dominance over other teams that can’t hit lefties, and his 1.14 WHIP this season is no fluke, so look for him to keep the hits to a minimum tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145; Odds via DraftKings)
I’m using this as somewhat of a hedge against Bubic, but also have a high expectation of winning both bets. Mullins is the lone Oriole who isn’t flailing against lefthanded pitching this season, batting .333 with a 1.093 OPS against them. He’s also 4-for-9 lifetime against Bubic with 3 doubles and a home run, so I like him to cash this juicy return today.
Degenerates
Kentucky Derby Picks (Odds via Caesars): 5:45 PM CT on NBC
I don’t know much about horse racing other than it’s a lot more fun to root for the longshot tickets. People who do know a lot about horse racing strike me as kind of weird, including the guy I rely on for horse racing picks, so on his advice this is what I’m rolling with for the Derby today.
Luxor Café (+1500) – I’m told he has great genes and a great jockey.
Baeza (+1200) – I’m told it’s a cool story that he’s the substitute for a scratched horse, and has kept up with Derby favorite Journalism before.
Admire Daytona (+3000) – I don’t have to know anything about horse racing to admire the price on this one.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-19 (-0.55 Units) – Recommend: Fade, Fade Hard
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.