Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers Team Total Over 118.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on TNT
In my opinion this is a great number that you’re getting for the best offensive efficiency team in the league. There’s really no stopping this Cavs offense right now, as Miami found out last round in giving up 126.0 PPG in that sweep. The Heat were the NBA’s 8th-best scoring defense this season too, so the switch to facing a Pacers team ranked 17th in points allowed and 15th in defensive efficiency should give the Cavs a boost.
I think the Pacers were extremely fortunate that the Bucks threw up on themselves offensively in the first round. Indiana is not likely to get that kind of luck against an elite scoring squad this time around, so I expect a big night from the Cleveland offense to open this series.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets -0.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:30 PM CT on TNT
If you made me choose who’s coming out of this Game 7, I’d probably pick the Warriors with their experience. I also want to see the Wolves have home court and flex their size on the tiny Golden State roster, so there’s my bias creeping in again. But what I can’t ignore in this series is how Houston has gotten off to excellent starts.
Their youth and speed have been effective advantages to start games in this series, powering them to a 5-1 record in the first quarters with a plus-7.0 average margin. I think it’s also important to note that Houston was 5th in average first quarter margin all season, while the Warriors were 16th. The home crowd effect in a Game 7 environment has to be factored in as a Rockets advantage here as well, so I’m counting on them to start fast again.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 Made Three’s (+135; Odds via DraftKings)
This is some serious outlier stuff happening for VanVleet, but how can you not keep riding the hot streak at prices like this? The Houston point guard has been unconscious from deep the past three games, and while he’s going to slow down eventually, you have to like the opportunity here. The volume will definitely be there as the Rockets ride the hot hand, so I’ll count on there being enough attempts to cash this juicy return.
MLB (1 Unit) SF Giants First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on NBCS-BA
I’m really not understanding how the books came up with this number, as it seems like a mistake. Let’s first thank the scheduling gods for giving us Logan Webb versus German Marquez, as the presence of Webb keeps the full-game total down, thus holding down the number for San Fran. But if you’re not fading German Marquez right now, you’re missing out on a great opportunity. The Rockies righty is getting thrashed this season for a 9.82 ERA and 2.06 WHIP, just astronomical numbers, and has given up 4 or more runs the past 5 starts.
That’s where it gets strange for me, as Marquez rarely gets more than 5 innings of work in, yet his prop for earned runs sits at 3.5 today. So to need a full run less for this team total when Marquez will be lucky to finish 5 innings and is expected to give up more than this number doesn’t compute. I think the Giants jump all over him just as every team does, aided by this being a day game with the wind blowing out, and cash this team total early.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-16 (+0.65 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.