Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Team Total Over 3.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on COLR
The books did it again, making the same weird mistake with a Rockies pitcher that should get shelled. German Marquez has a total earned runs prop of 3.5 tonight, with equal juice on both sides. Marquez is truly awful this season, especially on the road where he has a 10.53 ERA and .356 on-base average allowed, and is due for regression after a good start last Sunday.
The average Marquez start this season lasts less than 5 innings with 4.5 runs allowed, so teams are typically going over this first 5 total. Why then would it be plus-juice for the team total but not on his earned runs, with the added benefit of any unearned runs counting towards the team total? I’ll take advantage of the extra juice, thank you very much.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/NY Liberty Over 168.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 12:00 PM CT on ABC
These teams actually played some relatively lower-scoring games last season, but I see this as a different situation, and so does the market as the total has steadily ticked upwards. This is a showcase game for the league on national TV between the two dominant squads of recent years, and the opening game of the year should see fireworks. Both teams have the offensive firepower to send this game flying over the total, and with so much scoring in the WNBA last night, I expect two flagship franchises to put on a show today.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky/Indiana Fever Over 169 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:00 PM CT on ABC
Ditto everything I said above about the Aces and Liberty, but add in the Caitlin Clark effect. A lot of smart opinions think Clark is really primed to take off this season and become the dominant force in the league, and the Fever have surrounded her with a lot more talent and much better coaching. Chicago has also vastly improved its roster, and that should boost the offensive output overall in this game. These teams went 3-1 over this total against each other last season, so the offensive improvements and situational factors should send this one over the total as well.
NHL (0.5 Unit) Winnipeg Jets @ Dallas Stars -1.5 (+170; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ABC
There isn’t much that’s rarer than hockey making an appearance in this column, but the price here is too good to pass up. I actually can’t believe there’s this hefty of a plus-juice return on something that just keeps happening. This Winnipeg goalie is cursed on the road in these playoffs, and the Jets have suffered because of it, going 0-5 on the puck line while losing by margins of 2, 3, 3, 4, and 5 goals. This is a closeout opportunity for Dallas, so the Jets will be very desperate late in the game, pull the goalie early, and give the Stars a chance to get empty net goals that make this number easy to cover.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-18 (+0.95 Units) – Recommend: Tail
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.