Locks
NBA (1 Unit) NY Knicks @ Indiana Pacers -1 First Quarter (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on TNT
There’s been a definite home court boost early in games for this series, and I’m playing that angle again here to look for a solid start out of Indiana. Home teams are 5-0 to this number in the series, so the home cooking is a real thing. I’m also counting on the Pacers to want to bounce back from Thursday’s game that was never particularly close, and a big first quarter will go a long way for them tonight.
After their previous three losses this postseason, the Pacers are a total of plus-29 in the opening quarter of the following game, so they know how to move on from defeat. They’ve been consistently profitable in the opening quarter, going 5-2 ATS in first quarters at home in the playoffs and were 8th in average first quarter margin overall this season, so look for an early home bounce back tonight.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Karl-Anthony Towns Over 33.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
I understand why books keep setting this number here, as it’s in line with KAT’s playoff average of 32.9 points and rebounds per game. But he just keeps abusing Myles Turner for 37.2 in this series and 39.1 against Indiana on the season overall. In another close-out scenario, with his knee looking fairly healthy, expect KAT to get a ton of minutes from Tom Thibodeau and fly over this total again.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Bennedict Mathurin Over 9.5 Points (-120; Odds via DraftKings)
Someone check on Rick Carlisle because he seems to forget and then remember and then forget and then remember again that Ben Mathurin is pretty good when you use him. Indiana’s depth is key in this series, especially at home, so look for Mathurin to continue his strong play of the past couple games.
MLB (1 Unit) NY Yankees/LA Dodgers Over 9.5 (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 6:15 PM CT on FOX
If last night’s game with much better starting pitchers, including an AL Cy Young contender, can hit 13 runs, then this game can too. I was very surprised to see the Dodgers hit like that against an elite lefty, so facing a below-average righty tonight in Will Warren should see them tee off. It shouldn’t be too surprising that LA leads the league in average, OPS, wOBA, and weighted runs created against righties, so they’ll do their part.
And the Yankees will too against Landon Knack, who has really struggled at home with a 7.07 ERA so far this season. New York is also top-5 in just about every offensive metric against righthanded pitchers like Knack, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Aaron Judge go yard again since Knack struggles against righthanded power hitters. With this game starting in the late afternoon LA time, it’s still plenty warm with the wind blowing out which should help send this well over the total.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105; Odds via DraftKings)
Freddie Freeman would get so much attention for his excellence if there wasn’t a guy named Shohei at the top of the Dodgers order. Putting him up against a basic righty like Will Warren is almost unfair as he’s batting .393 with a 1.153 OPS against righthanded pitching, with similar numbers just overall at home this season. Ohtani and Judge get all the attention, especially in the bases market with their numbers juiced to the moon, so this is where to look and I expect Freeman to have another solid night.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Same-Game Prop Parlay (+190; Odds via DraftKings): 9:10 PM CT on FS1
There are two props I was looking well ahead to for this game, and both came in with juice that puts them outside of my tolerance so let’s tie them together instead.
Mike Soroka Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-140)
The Nationals starter has been very consistent in giving up a few runs every game, and this one should be no different. His only start where he didn’t go over this total was shortened to just 4 innings, but he should have to go deeper tonight with the Nats using several bullpen arms last night. And he’s up against a Diamondbacks team that ranks in the top-3 for advanced metrics against righties, so I see him giving up plenty to go over this prop.
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (-145)
It’s a small sample size, but Carroll has owned Soroka with a double and home run in 3 at-bats. Carroll has been slumping in May, but seems to be coming out of it with 8 bases in his past 3 games, plus he’s far better at home and against righties, so a couple of bases tonight will close this juicy parlay.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-12 (-0.80 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.