Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Ernie Clement Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 12:37 PM CT on NBCS-CA
Clement has been tearing the cover off the ball lately, with a red-hot May that culminated in him going wild against this Athletics staff. The Jays third baseman has 9 hits in 14 at-bats in this series, and he should keep it going today with JP Sears on the mound. As a lefty, Sears puts Clement in his ideal hitting split where he’s piled up a .388 average and 1.161 OPS. Clement is quickly becoming a player that won’t have plus-juice returns on his 1.5 base props, so I’m taking advantage of it still being available in this ideal matchup.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Shohei Ohtani Alt Over 2.5 Total Bases (+125; Odds via DraftKings)
This is a good example of the trajectory Ernie Clement is on, where you’re forced to look to the alternate market because of juice problems. Shohei is rarely going to be anything but a favorite to get multiple bases in a given game, but tonight looks like a good opportunity to get even more.
Ohtani somehow has an even better batting average against lefties like New York starter Ryan Yarbrough, so he should have a productive night at the plate. Giving me confidence in the bases is the fact that Ohtani is 4-for-10 lifetime against Yarbrough with all of those hits going for extra bases. Showing out on national TV against the Yankees is something Ohtani is just plain likely to do, so I’ll take a shot on this juicy return.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Connecticut Sun @ NY Liberty -18.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston
This is a meeting of best versus worst in a lot of ways, so obviously the spread is going to be massive like it is. But I have confidence in New York here for a couple of reasons, first of which is how just plain bad the Sun are. At just 2-4 ATS this season with a minus-3.7 average ATS margin, it’s difficult for books to adapt to how bad they actually are.
Connecticut really is making a strong case for worst in the WNBA this season though, with the second-worst scoring differential and the worst rebounding differential. With the Liberty leading the league in scoring, shooting percentage, and point differential, they have what’s needed to run out the Sun on any night. But this is a Commissioner’s Cup game, where average winning margin can be a tiebreaker for a Liberty squad sure to be in contention, so they have motivation to put it on the Sun today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-13 (+0.65 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.