Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Javier Baez Alt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140; Odds via DraftKings): 12:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit
It’s rare you see the kind of success Baez has had in this matchup over such a large sample size. He has crushed Cubs starter Jameson Taillon in his career, owning a .571 average and 1.619 OPS, which are numbers you usually see in maybe a 6 or 8 at-bat sample. But Baez has done it in 21 at-bats, logging 12 hits with 4 doubles and 2 home runs. Backing Baez to do anything positive can be pretty dangerous given his track record, but he should be plenty motivated against his former team today, so I think this juicy alt line price is worth a shot.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Boston Red Sox/NY Yankees Over 8 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:35 PM CT on FOX
It’s the Yankees and Red Sox, there should be some amount of fireworks as last night’s game proved with 15 runs. This total is held down by the fact that two excellent starting pitchers are going, especially for Boston with Garret Crochet who’s been dominant. But it’s two lefthanded starters with Ryan Yarbrough going for New York, and that puts these teams in their ideal offensive split. It’s more than just ideal, as the Yankees and Red Sox are 1-2 in just about every hitting metric against lefties, including scoring and weighted runs created. This total is just too low for that kind of offensive potential, regardless of who’s on the mound.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Athletics Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:05 PM CT on MASN
Charlie Morton and Luis Severino? In the Sacramento minor league park where totals are getting crushed? On a beautiful night with the wind blowing out? The only reason I’m not going in harder on this is books are adjusting the totals significantly due to the success of overs in A’s home games.
But the bottom line is Severino gets crushed at home to the tune of a 6.99 ERA, and the Baltimore lineup is finally showing life. Charlie Morton meanwhile is overdue for retirement, and an Athletics team that has gotten better against righties should have no trouble getting to him. Then behind those bad starters are two atrocious bullpens, with the Orioles ranked 26th and the A’s dead last in reliever ERA, so runs are coming tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-11 (+3.92 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.