Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Zach Eflin Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-125; Odds via DraftKings): 3:05 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN
The Orioles putting up 22 runs last night was…..unexpected. Today should be Tampa’s turn to put up a big number and chase Baltimore’s starter. Well, again, since they scored 8 themselves and have chased the starter in 3 of the 5 meetings with the Orioles this season. That includes the last time they saw Eflin, tagging him for 7 earned runs, and they have a cumulative .364 average and 1.067 OPS against him. The Orioles righty has given up at least this many runs in 5 of his past 7 starts, and with the Rays out for revenge I think they knock him around early.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Colin Rea Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 6:15 PM CT on FOX
I swear I blinked and all of a sudden Houston was running away with the AL West again. I spotted the issue with this team early on that had me writing them off, which was an inability to convert hits into runs. That’s exemplified by the fact that they lead baseball in total hits against righthanded pitchers by a massive margin, but are just 14th in RBI and 11th in scoring.
They’ve been starting to turn that around though, and their weighted metrics are showing the improvement, so I trust that they’ll be able to get to Colin Rea tonight. The big righty has had a tough past month or so, posting a 7.11 ERA and going over this number in 4 of his past 6 starts. The Astros will get their baserunners as I said, so a little bit of clutch hitting will go a long way to getting over this prop total.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Washington Nationals/LA Angels Over 9 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:38 PM CT on MLB Network
These teams combined for 24 runs last night, and while that’s not predictive of tonight’s game, there is a big reason why it will have an impact. Both bullpens were worked hard with a combined 9 relievers seeing action, and both pens are already awful, with the Angels ranked 28th and the Nationals 29th in bullpen ERA. That means both starters will be asked to pitch deeper into tonight’s game, and they’re both guaranteed to give up runs.
Mike Soroka for the Nats has been rough on the road with a 5.93 ERA, and this Angels lineup is really coming on strong with full health now. And Kyle Hendricks starting for LA is always a recipe for runs, and his bland pitches should be easy for an aggressive Washington lineup to jump on. And when they’re both inevitably pulled for one of those bad, overworked relievers, even more runs will be coming. So in perfect hitting conditions at Angel Stadium, these teams should have another big night on the scoreboard.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-17 (-3.06 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.