Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago Cubs First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Marquee
I want to find a way to fade Simeon Woods Richardson in this game against a Cubs team that is the league’s highest-scoring on the road. His earned runs prop of 2.5 is juiced much too heavily for my tastes at -145, but the Cubs to score the same number of runs in 5 innings is at standard juice. Woods Richardson rarely pitches deep into games, only going into the 6th inning in 3 of his 13 starts this season and averaging just 4 and 2/3rds innings per start. So if he’s going over on his earned runs prop it’s happening in the first 5 innings, making this team total a steal compared to the prop, and I’m in on the Cubs because of it.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100; Odds via DraftKings)
Part of the reason I like the Cubs to score early and often is their dominance against righthanded pitchers, leading the league in runs scored for that split. A big part of that is elite lefthanded bats like Crow-Armstrong, who crushes righties for a .310 average and .971 OPS this season. PCA has been on a tear this month with 20 total bases in his past 6 games, and I think it continues tonight.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Michael Busch Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115; Odds via DraftKings)
Here’s another powerful lefty bat who crushes righthanded pitching for a .319 average and 1.014 OPS on the year. He’s also been on an absolute tear lately with 47 total bases in his past 15 games. But Busch comes with extra motivation as a Minnesota kid from Inver Grove Heights, and is playing his first game in Target Field as a pro tonight, so I expect him to capitalize on the moment.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Boston Red Sox Team Total Over 5.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on NESN
The Red Sox have been surging lately, and there’s a direct correlation to the pitching they’ve faced. A fortunate stretch of seeing a lot of lefties has really helped their cause, and they’ll see another tonight in Kyle Freeland. They got to see another bad Rockies lefty last night and scored 9 runs, so the league’s best team for scoring, batting average, and second-best for OPS against lefties should thrive again. Freeland is awful at home but also owns several blow-up starts on the road this season, plus there’s a bad bullpen behind him, so I like Boston to get over this number at an attractive price.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total Under 3.5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports KC
After last night’s 3-run output, the Pirates have now only gone over this total in 37 of their 92 games this season. That’s a 60% rate of failure over a fairly large sample size, and simple implied probability calculations would say this number should be juiced in the -150 neighborhood as a result. So I’ll definitely take this price given the history, and given the pitching they’ll see tonight. Seth Lugo starting for KC should give the Pirates more trouble as they’re bottom-5 in the league for every metric against righties, and Lugo has been fantastic with a 1.29 ERA his past 6 starts. A good Royals bullpen should finish the job, and hold Pittsburgh under this number once again.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Chicago White Sox Over 8.5 (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 6:40 PM CT on TSN
The surging Blue Jays are quite a story, and a lot of it has to do with the excellent pitching they’ve been getting. Well, except for Chris Bassitt that is, who goes tonight on the road where it’s been very difficult for him with a 6.38 ERA. Just a couple weeks ago he held down this White Sox lineup in Toronto, but them getting to see him again on the road should be a different story, especially with them bouncing back from a tough travel spot last night.
And on the other side of the equation is Aaron Civale, who really does not care to be in a White Sox uniform after the Brewers traded him there out of spite. He got rocked by the Jays for 5 runs in that series up in Toronto, and has bad numbers against their lineup overall. Toronto’s bats have been red hot against anything less than excellent pitching, so expect both offenses to do their part in getting over this total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Merrill Kelly Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on ARID
So, Kelly finally went under on his strikeout prop last game. It was bound to happen, even though he had 2 in the first inning, and I’m not bitter about it at all. But this is a massive swing in the number and pricing that essentially says his whole season has been a fluke. Going over this number in 12 of 18 starts while averaging 5.7 per game does not feel flukish to me, and I’m taking a stand to buy low here. The Padres don’t strike out very much against righties like Kelly, but this number is not tough to reach and the juice is attractive, so I’m in on the discount.
Degenerates
NBA Summer League OKC Thunder/Utah Jazz Over 182.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on NBA TV
The Jazz are the team I’m looking at to drive tempo and determine the style of this game tonight. They’ve been running so far in this event in Salt Lake City, and the elevation helps to tire out defenses. Utah also got into a wild affair last night that saw 223 points, so that will further wear down their defensive legs. OKC looks like they finally found some offense with this squad last night, and if that’s the case then the tempo and exhibition-style nature of the event will carry this final game over the total.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-13 (+0.13 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.