Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Cal Quantrill Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (+130; Odds via DraftKings): 4:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL
Starting pitchers really like to get through 5 innings for some reason, it must be a mental thing, so cashing this prop where Quantrill will have to get pulled before finishing 5 is tough. But if any starter is going to do it, it’ll be him, as even in starts that are going well he’s been on an extremely short leash. Quantrill has only pitched into the 6th inning once all season, and 8 of his 17 starts have gone under this total, with 5 of those coming in road games.
The Reds seemed to wake up at the plate last night and are so much better against righties like Quantrill, so they could help force an early exit. It’s also very hot and humid in Cincinnati today so it’s easier for pitchers to tire out, with good hitting conditions at the hitter-friendly park as well, so I’ll take a shot at the under here with a great price.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers/LA Angels Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on RSN
Well that was an easy over last night with 19 runs, easiest of the series so far, and while that’s not likely to be repeated I still think it’s worth going for a sweep of overs in this series. The number has crept up steadily from 7.5 to 8.5 to 9 and now to here as these teams knock it all over the yard, but that movement doesn’t concern me. This number would likely be much higher if the Rangers weren’t the league’s best under team, but their offense coming to life recently should start to reverse that trend.
I think they keep the bats hot against Jack Kochanowicz tonight, as it’s great hitting conditions at Angel Stadium and warmer than usual. The Angel righty is always good for a few runs allowed, and arguably the league’s worst bullpen behind him that’s overworked lately loves to give up more. And for Texas, I just don’t know how the wheels haven’t fallen off for Patrick Corbin yet, as he used to be the most reliable fade in baseball. LA has not been good against lefties, but hot bats can change that here and send another game over the total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on SDPA
Rodriguez just is what he is at this point, a below-average pitcher who’s always going to give up a good amount of hits and sometimes a ton of runs, but books just refuse to recognize it. He’s allowed 6 or more hits in 9 of his 15 starts this season, and has been an extremely reliable bet on the hits allowed prop. That number is slightly higher than it’s been on average this season, but even-money juice has me willing to jump in.
His 1.65 WHIP and .307 on-base average allowed in road games is good for racking up hits, and I think that’s what the Padres will do here. It’s counterintuitive, but as a lefty Rodriguez struggles against lefthanded bats, allowing a .352 average and 1.007 OPS this season. So all the excellent hitters San Diego has from that side of the plate should cash in, rack up the hits, and send this over the number.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx/LA Sparks Over 162.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
The Lynx don’t like losing, which is obvious to say, but they always seem to bounce back with a vengeance. Including the Commissioner’s Cup debacle and yesterday’s loss in Phoenix, they’ve dropped four games on the season and the following three games have seen them score 101, 96, and 92 points with all three clearing this total. So I’m tempted by their team total here, but those high-scoring outputs tend to pull the other team up with them.
And the Sparks have been scoring like crazy lately, with 84.8 PPG the past 5 games, while also owning the second-worst scoring defense in the league. LA also can’t guard the three, so a positive regression game out of the Lynx from deep will help pile up the points. This back-to-back with travel scheduling spot is unusual for the WNBA and probably weakens the defensive legs for Minnesota, so I see plenty of scoring this afternoon.
Degenerates
NBA Summer League Minnesota Timberwolves/New Orleans Pelicans Over 179.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN2
Both Minnesota basketball teams are playing on an afternoon in mid-July? Eat it MLB, we back. Out of pure fandom and excitement I’m interested in the over here, but there’s good reason to believe we’ll see plenty of points between these teams. The Wolves have a significant talent and experience edge with their summer league roster compared to the Pelicans, which is why books have taken a stand and installed them as 5.5 point favorites in an event that’s extremely difficult to predict. And that Pelicans roster is full of players that were much better known for offense than defense in college, so I see a style of game that leads to plenty of points today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-14 (-0.80 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.