Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Braves/St Louis Cardinals Over 9.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 1:15 PM CT on Fanduel Sports MW
The only reason this total isn’t double digits is the struggles Atlanta has had all season at the plate. The Braves have vastly underperformed their talent level all year, but it’s been good to see them hitting and scoring better lately, even if it’s been against weak pitching. That trend will continue today against Erik Fedde who has had a rough last month, posting a 9.30 ERA and 2.07 WHIP, plus he’s allowed a .371 average and 1.116 OPS to the Atlanta roster in his career.
And the Braves appear to be starting Nathan Wiles today for a bullpen game, which means a lot of average to below-average arms will try to shut down the Cardinals. I don’t see that happening against a St Louis team that is catching positive regression after a hitting slump. The conditions in St Louis are good for hitters with warm temperatures and wind blowing out to right-center, so these teams that have plenty of potential pop should get over this total.
MLB (1 Unit) LA Dodgers/SF Giants Over 8 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 3:05 PM CT on NBCS-BA
What would this total be if the starting pitcher’s name for LA wasn’t Shohei Ohtani? If it was some bullpen arm I think we would see a 9 at least, but Ohtani’s presence holds down the total when it shouldn’t because he’s not going to do much more than be an opener. That means the Giants will see nothing but relievers after the second inning, and the LA bullpen has certainly had its struggles.
Meanwhile, San Fran will send out Landen Roupp who has only seen the Dodgers once in his career. He didn’t make it out of the second inning and gave up 6 runs in an 11-5 Dodger win, part of every meeting this season going over this total. It’s an early afternoon start at Oracle Park which means the evening marine layer won’t hold down scoring, and a big wind is blowing out as usual, so expect these teams to clear the low total.
MLB (1 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Athletics Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:05 PM CT on SNET
After 13 runs last night, I think both teams are coming back for more in this one. Particularly the Blue Jays, who have just punished A’s pitching with 12, 11, 8, 8, and 7 runs in the five meetings this season. That highest output came when Jacob Lopez got the start, and he’s back on the mound tonight to face this Jays lineup that is extremely good against lefties. Any kind of a shortened start means the league’s worst bullpen gets more exposure, so Toronto could put up double digits again.
But the Athletics keep improving against righthanded pitching, and they logged 3 runs on 8 hits against Kevin Gausman in Toronto last month. This run for the Jays has really been fueled by excellent pitching which is probably unsustainable, so I’m confident that the A’s will make some noise in this game. As usual the wind is blowing straight out on a hot day in this minor league park, so two teams who have been great over bets this season should cash another.
Bonus Bets (0.25 Unit Each) Vladimir Guerrero Jr Alt Over 2.5 Total Bases (+160) & Ernie Clement Alt Over 2.5 Total Bases (+180)
Both of these sluggers are laying juice in the standard total bases market, so I’m going to the alt lines for a couple of big returns. They’re both elite against lefthanded pitching, and they both homered against Lopez in that previous meeting in Toronto. The conditions and the situation set up perfectly for both of them, and I think they cash in these juicy returns.
Degenerates
NBA Summer League Minnesota Timberwolves/Denver Nuggets Over 180.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV
The Wolves showed that they’re the team to be reckoned with in Vegas this summer, and I think they can keep scoring at will against Denver tonight. This Nuggets roster doesn’t have a ton of talent on the defensive end as they allowed an unimpressive Bucks team to drop 90 on them, but they do have some shooters that should be able to put up points. I expect those points will come in meaningless minutes with the Wolves lined as the biggest favorite I can remember seeing in a summer league game. If it is indeed a blowout that probably helps with reaching a total at this level, and I think offense is the story again tonight.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-14 (-0.2 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.