Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Guardians -1.5 @ Chicago White Sox (+125; Odds via Fanduel): 1:10 PM CT on CLEG
That crazy slump the Guardians went through is still impacting their pricing, even though they’ve pulled themselves out of the hitting and scoring tailspin they were in. The result is favorable numbers like this in a game where Cleveland would be expected to dominate at just about any other time this season, and I think this should be a comfortable win for them.
Remember, it was a scoring slump, not a pitching slump, and they should be able to hold down a White Sox offense that is only averaging 3.0 runs per game over their past 20 games. Meanwhile, continued positive regression from Cleveland’s bats should be coming here against former Guardian Aaron Civale. Since being traded to Chicago, Civale has been quiet-quitting and giving up runs in bunches, so a White Sox team that tends to lose in spectacular fashion should fall again today.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Ernie Clement Alt Over 2.5 Total Bases (+170; Odds via DraftKings): 3:05 PM CT on SNET
It’s just a basic rule at this point: if Toronto is facing a lefty starter you have to back Clement in the bases market. Books are well aware of this rule though, so they’re juicing him at -125 to go over 1.5 total bases, forcing me to look to the alt market and this juicy return. Fortunately, he has some positive experience against A’s starter Jeffrey Springs, tagging him for a double and home run in 4 career at-bats. With his success against lefties and perfect hitting conditions in Sacramento again, I’m seeing another big day for Clement here.
MLB (0.25 Unit Each) Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+140), Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+105) & Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+125; Odds via DraftKings): 3:10 PM CT on NBCS-PH
I’m playing the narrative here of Sanchez being highly motivated in this start. He and the entire Phillies organization are upset over his All-Star snub in favor of rookie Jacob Misiorowski, and they have a valid case. Sanchez has been excellent all season, including in a start against the Padres 11 days ago where he hit every one of these props. With him getting the full vacation over the All-Star break, look for Sanchez to be all gas and no brakes today against a Padres team that might have a more relaxed approach to their upcoming time off.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Connecticut Sun Team Total Over 75.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston
It’s uncomfortable asking the worst team in the league to do anything positive, but I have to find a way to fade the LA defense here. The Sparks are just too vulnerable on that end of the floor, allowing 87.2 PPG this season which is second-worst to only this Sun team. Connecticut only averages 71.7 on the season, but they’ve shown some improvement lately, most notably a couple of strong performances against Seattle who has the third-best scoring defense.
LA has only held two opponents under this total on the season, once in the opener against Golden State and then against Indiana who still scored 75 without Caitlin Clark. This game sets up as seriously lacking in defense overall, so I’ll look to go over the lowest of all the available numbers.
Degenerates
NBA Summer League Utah Jazz/Golden State Warriors Over 181.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Speaking of no defense, these two teams showed absolutely zero interest on that end of the floor to kick off Vegas summer league play. The Warriors allowed 106 to Portland, while the Jazz gave up 111 to Charlotte, neither of which have particularly impressive rosters. Keep in mind it’s only 10 minute quarters in this format, so that’s like giving up 127 and 133 in a regular 48-minute NBA game. The Jazz showed no defensive ability in their opening event in Utah last week either, so I expect pace and disinterest in guarding anyone to send this over the total.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-16 (-2.1 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.