Locks
WNBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Lynx/Chicago Sky Over 161.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
We’re getting the Lynx in a bounce back game coupled with a revenge spot, and that gives plenty of reason to believe that a lot of points are coming tonight. Particularly from the Lynx, who have scored 101, 96, 92, and 91 points in the games following their other four losses this season. Those games have averaged 176.8 points, becoming so high-scoring because of what I call the blowout over factor.
Against Chicago, the previous two meetings have had essentially this same total, so books are not factoring in the revenge angle at all. One of those meetings fell just short thanks to a terrible night from deep by Minnesota, but they should get their shooting and scoring right against the Sky’s third-worst scoring defense and second-worst three-point defense. With the Lynx spending the past 48 hours stewing over that bad loss on Saturday, I’m expecting them to play angry, catch positive three-point regression, and send this over the total.
NBA Summer League (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs -4 vs Utah Jazz (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on NBA TV
This is a bad spot for Utah, and sets up perfectly for them to get run out. The Jazz just aren’t taking this event seriously, especially on defense as they’ve allowed triple-digits in both games. They’re now 0-2 and firmly eliminated from contention, so I don’t see them suddenly starting to guard anyone.
That will be bad news against the 2-0 Spurs who are very much playing for the Summer League title, and already beat the Mavericks convincingly despite Cooper Flagg’s monster game. The Spurs also had yesterday off while the Jazz were getting run out by Golden State late into the night, so I expect them to cover this number with ease.
Degenerates
MLB Home Run Derby Byron Buxton To Win (+900; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
Buck yeah, I love seeing my favorite player get this kind of publicity. What better way to ride the momentum of hitting for the cycle than to go win the derby that’s being held in your home state? Buck is an athletic freak who is healthy by his standards, so he should have both the power and stamina that’s needed in this event and 9 to 1 is a great price worth sprinkling.
Bonus Bet: Total Derby Home Runs Over 232.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Fun fact about Truist Park in Atlanta: it’s the stadium at the second-highest elevation in MLB next to Coors. It will also be hot and humid in Atlanta tonight which helps the ball jump, so conditions are right for a lot of bombs. I also think it’s interesting to see all the other athletic freaks besides Buxton in this event like Oneill Cruz, James Wood, Jazz Chisholm, and Junior Caminero. The stamina they have is important to racking up homers, and I think they pile up enough to reach this overall total.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-17 (-2.7 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.