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Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks 07/20

July 20, 2025 by Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins Team Total Over 6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:10 PM CT on COLR

The Twins were looking at one of the easiest second-half schedules in all of MLB, then they went and let the Rockies win a home series for the first time all season. So they need to stop the bleeding, and having Joe Ryan on the mound will certainly help, but how about abusing some Colorado pitching while you’re at it?

That’s where German Marquez comes into the equation, and ideally Minnesota will knock him around like most teams do. Marquez has made 7 home starts this season, and the opposing team is 5-2 over this team total thanks to his and the Rockies bullpen’s collective awfulness. The Twins missed a few opportunities yesterday to put a truly big number on the board, but I think they cash in today for a ton of scoring in a must-have spot.

 

MLB (0.5 Unit) KC Royals @ Miami Marlins First 5 Innings ML (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 12:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports KC

This line is priced according to an All-Star pitcher taking the mound for KC, when it should be priced according to how these teams are playing right now. The Marlins are on a roll and actually gaining ground in the NL Wild Card race, while the Royals are watching their season go down the drain.

Miami taking the first two games of this series, including the first 5 innings outright in both, is more proof of where these teams are. The Marlins did not have the best pitching matchups for those games, and they don’t today by name recognition alone, but digging deeper finds Miami might just have the advantage.

Kris Bubic made the All-Star game in large part due to his April and May, but his past 6 starts have resulted in a 4.86 ERA, and him getting shelled in the All-Star game was icing on the cake. And we know the Royals can’t hit righties, so Janson Junk who has been outstanding at home with a 1.89 ERA should keep that lineup quiet. I expect the worst case to be a tie after 5 innings and a refund, but I think the Marlins keep surprising people here.

 

MLB (0.5 Unit) Miles Mikolas Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 3:10 PM CT on ARID

Mikolas on the road this season has been rough, compiling a 5.58 ERA and authoring some serious blowup games. It only gets more difficult for him today, facing a Diamondbacks team that is hitting extremely well and just mashes righthanded pitchers like him. Arizona is the best in the big leagues for OPS, wOBA, weighted runs created, and weighted runs created-plus this season, along with third in raw scoring. When Mikolas has faced the other teams atop that list it has not gone well for him, so look for the D’backs to jump on the Cardinals starter early and often today.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-15 (-0.75 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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