Locks
MLB (0.25 Unit) Colorado Rockies Team Total Over 4.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 12:35 PM CT on MASN
I am in no way endorsing the Rockies offensive abilities, this is just a must-fade of Tomoyuki Sugano. The rookie that’s not really a rookie has been figured out by major league bats, putting up an 8.84 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in his past 4 starts. The Rockies are tough to support, but they’ve been scoring much better after the All-Star break and should bounce back after yesterday’s 18-0 drubbing. Colorado is better against righties like Sugano, and will get to face a rough Orioles bullpen behind him, so I’ll take the plus juice return and back them here.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs/Chicago White Sox Over 9 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on Marquee
Colorado isn’t the only team scoring like crazy by their standards since the All-Star break, as the White Sox are mashing as well. They’ve averaged 7.8 runs per game in those 8 games, taking full advantage of bad pitching every time it takes the mound. That’s what they get to see today with Ben Brown going for the Cubs, as he’s had blowup starts 3 of his past 4 times out. With him on the mound the Sox have an excellent chance to contribute here, and help out the Cubs who should keep their hot offense going. The White Sox will pitch some kind of bullpen game today, so both Chicago squads have bad pitching and hot offenses heading into this game that I think easily clears the total.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Dream @ Minnesota Lynx -8 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV
If the Lynx are facing a team other than the Liberty and laying less than double digits, I’m in, no questions asked. They’re simply locked in both offensively and defensively, rolling their past four opponents by double digits. That’s when you want to just ride the wave with this team, as it’s a lot of fun when they start rolling downhill. They played poorly in their first meeting with the Dream down in Atlanta, needing overtime to get the win. They should be motivated to play better than that, and will benefit from Rhyne Howard being out today, so I’m not overthinking this one.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces First Half Team Total Over 43.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN3
This total should not be less than half of the full-game total which is 88 points. The Aces should be on a mission in this game, having just taken a couple of beatings in their past two outings. They’ll face a very shorthanded Wings team today, and should be able to run it up right away on them. That’s why I’m focusing on the first half, as this game could get out of hand and Las Vegas might slow it down late. But they’ve also dominated the Wings in the first half on normal days, putting up 49 and 47 points in the other two meetings, so in a motivated spot they should put up a big early number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-8 (+5.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.