Locks
MLB (1 Unit) 2-Leg Parlay (+165; Odds via DraftKings)
Tomoyuki Sugano Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140): 1:20 PM CT on FS1
I keep saying the league has figured Sugano out, and the books seem to realize that as well with this pricing designed to deter you from betting the prop. So I’m forced to add it as a parlay piece because I’m not laying that kind of juice, but I really like the setup here for him to allow a lot of hits.
With major league hitters figuring Sugano out, he’s gone over this hits prop in 7 of his past 10 games overall and his last 4 road starts. He should have trouble against this Cubs lineup that rakes against righties, ranking 4th in batting average and weighted on-base average, along with 3rd in OPS, and I think that adds up to plenty of hits from them today.
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-185) @ Washington Nationals: 3:05 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI
Yesterday the Brewers made things easy with a 16-9 win that cashed a rocking chair plus-money run line bet. The juice has caught up though and you’d have to lay it to take Milwaukee at -1.5 today, so I’ll just ask them to win as part of this parlay. That feels pretty comfortable to me since they have an even better pitching matchup in this game.
That’s because they have Brandon Woodruff starting who has picked up right where he left off as an elite starter, and has had a lot of success in holding down this Nationals lineup in the past. Washington will send out Jake Irvin, who has always needed a lot of run support to log wins. I don’t think he’ll get that against Woodruff, and when he gives way to the league’s worst bullpen that used a bunch of arms last night, the Brewers should start to run away again to close this parlay.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 1:20 PM CT on FS1
Everything sets up well for PCA to have a big game this afternoon. He’s facing a very hittable pitcher in Sugano, who is a righty which he hits .305 with a .961 OPS against overall. He’s at home where he’s batting .306 with a .947 OPS, considerably higher than on the road. It’s also a day game and he’s batting 36 points higher in those than at night, so after a scorching month of July where he averaged 2.7 bases per game, I think he has another solid outing here.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx -4.5 @ Las Vegas Aces (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ABC
This for me is a bet where I’m looking squarely at the Aces and saying prove it. This team has been a major disappointment all season, and while they’re 5-2 in their past 7 games, a closer look at the competition says it’s not that impressive of a run.
Included in that stretch is the 31-point beating they took at Target Center last week, a game that probably made the Lynx feel too good about themselves and forced them to refocus after losing their next game. That focused version of the Lynx should be what we see today, and that’s not a version the Aces are good enough to beat.
The power structure in the league has flipped, making the Aces much more average while Minnesota has taken over as the dominant team both overall and in this matchup. That’s why the Lynx have won the past 5 meetings dating back to last season by double digits, and have beaten the spread by 15.4 points on average. So at less than the key number of 5 points, I’m happy to lay it with the Lynx and force the Aces to prove they’re more than what they seem.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-15 (+0.13 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.