Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Miami Marlins/Atlanta Braves Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:15 PM CT on Fanduel Sports South
With two very fade-worthy pitchers on the mound, I expected this total to come in at 9, so I’ll gladly take the discount here. For the Marlins it’s Sandy Alcantara, one of the easiest pitchers to fade all season long. That’s especially true on the road where he still has an 8.86 ERA and .324 opponent on-base average. The progress he showed in two straight excellent starts to close July was fleeting as he got rocked for 6 earned on Monday, a pattern that has happened throughout the season and means another bad start is coming.
And Erik Fedde starting for Atlanta is simply the Braves sending out a warm body, and the Marlins offense that has shown a ton of improvement over the past month should jump on him like most teams do. Two below-average bullpens for teams that are out of contention likely won’t do much to stop the bleeding caused by the starters, so I like this game to get over the total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks Team Total Over 5.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on COLR
There’s a bit of truth to the joke that the Diamondbacks shipped their whole roster to Seattle, but they still have plenty of pop left in Arizona. Certainly enough to jump all over the Rockies pitching staff, which still hasn’t recovered from allowing 45 runs to Toronto this past week. What the D’Backs have done to Colorado this season is a strong second to that, averaging 6.9 runs per game in the 7 meetings this year. Despite all the personnel changes, the Snakes still lead baseball in OPS against righties, so I think they can jump on Bradley Blalock and his 7.68 ERA today. With a bullpen behind him that couldn’t possibly be more worn out, I think Arizona scores all night long to hit this over.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky/Indiana Fever Under 164.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBS
Woof, poor CBS thought they were getting Angel Reese versus Caitlin Clark for this primetime spot, and instead they get neither. They get a very banged up version of both teams, as Chicago has several key players listed as questionable, while Indiana just lost Aari McDonald and Sydney Colson for the year on Thursday. If not for those losses, I would’ve been looking at the Fever to absolutely stomp Chicago here in a get-right game that probably put it over the total.
Indiana might still cover the number since they’ve blown out the Sky in all three meetings, but I prefer to look to the under here given the personnel issues for both teams. Chicago really hasn’t been able to score in recent games without Reese, and haven’t scored well against Indiana this season as the three meetings averaged 151.0 PPG. With the Fever a little deflated and coming off a tough road trip, their offense might not be in sync either so I think this falls short of the total.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) LA Sparks -4 @ Golden State Valkyries (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on SportsNet LA
I couldn’t believe this spread was sitting at 1.5 pretty much all of yesterday, but the steam has hit hard and fast. Smart money is appreciating the turnaround LA has shown over the past month to get into playoff contention, and they’ll need a game like this to leapfrog Golden State in the standings. These teams haven’t met in two months, and the improvement from LA while the Valkyries have been knocked down a peg will make this a different matchup.
Golden State won the last two meetings straight up as sizable dogs, something they’ve been good at all season. But those wins included big contributions from Kayla Thornton who is now out for the year, while the Sparks have added Cameron Brink to the mix. Golden State’s league-leading shooting defense will be tested like nothing they’ve seen all year against this Sparks squad that has hung triple digits in 5 of their past 6 games, and ultimately I think that’ll be too much for them to handle. So at below the key number of 5 points, I’ll lay it with the surging Sparks tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-12 (+3.15 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.