Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Athletics Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:35 PM CT on MASN
The A’s are a strange team against lefties this season. They rank just 25th in true scoring against lefthanded pitchers, but are 7th in both wOBA and OPS and 4th in batting average. That bumps their weighted runs created metrics up considerably compared to true scoring, so what they need is optimal conditions to knock a lefty around. That should be today against Cade Povich, who has struggled all season long at home with a 6.81 ERA and .301 opponent on-base average, and an Orioles bullpen ranked 25th in ERA. It’s also great hitting conditions at Camden Yards today with hot temps and the wind blowing out, so I think the A’s live up to their run-scoring potential in this one.
MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels/Detroit Tigers Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit
The Tigers better be very, very careful or their massive division lead is going to vanish. The problem has been their pitching completely falling apart, and today’s starter Casey Mize has been one of the many examples of that. Mize has compiled an 8.59 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over his past 4 appearances, and faces a hot-hitting Angels team that is getting better and better against righties.
Thankfully for Detroit, their bats haven’t gone down the drain alongside their pitching, so they should be able to get to Jack Kochanowicz today. The Angels righty has a 5.51 ERA on the road and was already shelled once by the Tigers this season, so I think it continues today. This has also been a high-scoring matchup, with 11.2 runs per game in the 6 meetings that have gone 5-1 over this total, and I’m seeing another today.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks Team Total Over 5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on ARID
This one isn’t broken, so there’s no sense in fixing anything. The Diamondbacks went over this total with 6 runs last night, and now average 6.8 per game against Colorado on the season. They’ll get to face Tanner Gordon today, one of the rare Rockies pitchers whose ERA is actually higher outside of Coors than in it. Arizona proved last night that they can still be dangerous against righties like Gordon, who doesn’t typically go deep into games. The beleaguered Colorado bullpen also has to be at its breaking point, so look for the D’backs to keep putting up the runs all day long here.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Dream Team Total Over 80.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on NBA TV
The Dream own this matchup, and I think they have another great night on the scoreboard regardless of their personnel situation. There’s a possibility that one or both of Britney Griner and Rhyne Howard return for Atlanta tonight, but the Dream might not need them. Howard hasn’t played in either of the meetings with Phoenix this season, and Griner missed the second one. Nonetheless, Atlanta dropped 90 and 95 points in those games, the latter being their second-highest output of the season. So there’s something about this matchup that heavily favors the Atlanta offense, and with them as underdogs their deflated team total is ripe for the picking in my opinion.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Allisha Gray Over 17.5 Points (+100; Odds via DraftKings)
Maybe that something in this matchup is Allisha Gray. The All-Star guard has been unstoppable in the two meetings with Phoenix, dropping 26 and 28 points. She’s also done an excellent job of carrying the scoring load with all of Atlanta’s injury issues, and this number actually comes in below her season average so I’m jumping in.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Seattle Storm/LA Sparks Over 172 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CW Seattle
I don’t know what that was out of the Sparks last night, but I’ll be upset about it for a while. I have to believe that they’ll bounce back in a big way tonight, as positive regression back towards their recent triple-digit scoring tendencies is bound to happen. Especially against a Seattle team that has really struggled to stop anything lately but is scoring well against poor defenses.
That’s what LA still is, especially with them pulling every opponent into a wild shootout over the past month. That’s made them the best over bet in the WNBA with a 20-9-1 over record including 10-3-1 at home. This is also a back-to-back with travel for the Sparks, which should tire them out and leave them vulnerable to a Seattle team that is surprisingly fast-paced. That’s the reason for this total being so high, but I think the situation is right for these teams to fly over it.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Nneka Ogwumike Over 17.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Well this is a first, putting a full unit on a WNBA prop, but deservedly so given the situation. Ogwumike always gets up for her former team, now averaging 25.2 PPG in 6 meetings the past 2 seasons. With the Sparks defense even more vulnerable than usual today, look for her to have an easy time clearing this very standard prop total. So much so that I’m putting an additional quarter unit on the next ladder rungs in the alt market: 20-plus points at +132 and 25-plus points at +427.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 18-12 (+5.1 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.