Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Chase Dollander Over 3.5 Earned Runs (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on COLR
I have to play the Coors effect on this prop with how it seems to impact Dollander. Back in mid-May, the Rockies went to Arizona and Dollander had an excellent start, holding the Diamondbacks to 1 run on 3 hits. That’s actually fairly common for his road starts, and a lot of his numbers away from home are pretty good especially by Colorado standards. But when he goes back to Coors all hell breaks loose, as he owns a 9.37 ERA, a 1.96 WHIP, and a .331 opponent on-base average. Dollander is 5-3 over this total in his home starts this season, and with a D’backs offense looking to bounce back from yesterday and still one of the most dangerous against righties, look for them to jump all over him tonight.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Athletics Team Total Over 5.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 9:05 PM CT on NBCS-CA
Yesterday was the first time the A’s went over this team total against the Angels in 8 meetings this season, but I think they can do it again. They’ll face Tyler Anderson who they match up pretty well against as a team that hits lefties well, and they touched him up for 5 runs the other time they faced him this season. Anderson has been rough on the road with a 5.52 ERA, and should struggle in the conditions tonight. He’s a fly-ball pitcher, so I’m sure he won’t like to see a big wind blowing out to center in the minor league park here. With what is still one of the league’s worst bullpens behind Anderson, I’m seeing the A’s staying hot at the plate to cash this plus-money return.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) NY Liberty @ Minnesota Lynx -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on CBS
There’s a common theme running through the Liberty’s current 4-10 straight up stretch, and it should make them less fearsome to Lynx backers today. Those 4 wins have come against LA, Connecticut, and Dallas twice, the three teams at the bottom of the league in points allowed and shooting defense. Today they have to contend with the team that leads the league in points allowed and is second in shooting defense, which has not gone well for them so far this season.
The Lynx had comfortable wins in both meetings so far this year, one just last weekend as a sizable 4-point dog in New York without Napheesa Collier. It’s possible that she will return today as she’s a game-time decision, but Minnesota has proven since she got hurt that they can beat top teams without her. I think it will be the excellent defense along with players like Kayla McBride and DiJonai Carrington picking up the scoring that boosts the Lynx today, so I’m willing to back them to defend home court at this short price.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-16 (-5.35 Units) – Recommend: Fade Hard
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.