Locks
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Sam Houston/Western Kentucky Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Now that college football is back, this is your reminder to pay attention to the insanities that are the transfer portal and coaching carousel if you haven’t already. They both did a number on these two teams, and I think the impact is going to be seen on the scoreboard tonight.
For Western Kentucky, the portal claimed their top 12 tacklers from last season, so this defense that played well last season is going to take a major step back. They’ll have to deal with Sam Houston keeping dynamic dual-threat QB Hunter Watson, and I don’t think the Toppers can slow down an offense that will be much more up-tempo this year under new coach Phil Longo.
WKU had some portal wins on offense though, bringing in QB Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian along with his OC Rick Bowie. Last year their offense lit up the FCS, playing with their hair on fire, so that should mean a return to the Bailey Zappe era in Bowling Green. With both offenses playing extremely up-tempo, this should be a shootout against weakened defenses and get well into the 60’s tonight.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Stanford @ Hawaii -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on CBS
If you’ve been paying attention to line movement this summer, and why wouldn’t you, the sharp steam has been obvious for this game. Stanford actually opened as the 2.5 point favorite, most likely based on name brand recognition, but there is no world in which they should be favored on the road against anyone. This program is basically starting from scratch, turning over more roster spots and coaching staff than anyone in the country, and it’s too much of an ask for them to have success.
I don’t think they have the QB play, running back talent, or offensive line to match up with what should be an excellent defensive front for Hawaii. The Warriors will return a ton of defensive talent, but it’s the offense that should really shine this year. Micah Alejado takes over at QB, and he should be electric in Timmy Chang’s run-and-shoot scheme. The hype around Alejado is real, he has plenty of excellent weapons around him, and he should torch a rebuilding Cardinal defense to get this win and cover at home.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Washington Nationals/Philadelphia Phillies Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:05 PM CT on NBCS-PH
This total has been climbing because we’ve already seen this same pitching matchup just this week. It was Sunday that Aaron Nola and Mitchell Parker faced off, neither lasting very long as they were both rocked in an 11-9 Phillies win. I don’t see much different with this game, not with how these pitchers are faring right now, and not with great weather conditions as a big wind is blowing out at Citizens Bank Park today.
That should spell more trouble for Parker who is a fly-ball pitcher, and has been awful for a while now. He has a 12.38 ERA in August, and a 10.10 ERA going back to the start of July to go along with a 1.85 WHIP in that time. And for Nola, he returned from the IL to get rocked last Sunday, which makes a blowup start before and after his IL stint. So I don’t have any confidence in these starters, and the Nationals bullpen is a disaster, so look for plenty of runs again today.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Aces -7.5 @ Washington Mystics (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on Vegas 34
Fair warning that you might want to sit this one out since my views on this game are clouded by a bit of rage. That rage would be directed at the Mystics this week, as their offensive futility cost me twice in their games against Connecticut. This team is an ugly watch most of the time, but if they can’t score against the awful Sun, they’re really in trouble against this rapidly improving Aces squad.
Vegas has turned it up on both ends of the floor during this 9-game winning streak where they’re also 7-2 ATS, so they’re more than capable of pulling away from a team that struggles like Washington does. An underrated element of this streak is that 7 of those wins have come against playoff teams, which the Mystics are not. Washington is extremely difficult to predict sometimes, but I’m mad enough not to care and I’m also a believer in the Aces, so I think they run away with this one.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-14 (-0.45 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.