Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers/San Diego Padres Over 8 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 3:10 PM CT on SDPA
This is a high leverage game that determines who goes into Monday leading the NL West, so the conventional wisdom is that it will be played tightly. It’s also easy to look at these starting pitchers, arguably the aces of their respective staffs, and say that they will keep this a low-scoring game.
But I don’t think it’s that simple, especially with how both starters have struggled. Let’s start with Yoshi Yamamoto for the Dodgers, who was elite on the road until he wasn’t, with two very troubling road starts in a row now. And the Padres have already gotten to him in their lone meeting this season for 3 runs, so I see continued regression out of him today, plus the Dodger bullpen is terribly unreliable.
And while Nick Pivetta has been elite both overall and at home, this Dodgers lineup is built to mash pitchers like him and that’s what they did the other time they faced him this season. These teams have had plenty of high-scoring games against each other this season, and with such a low number here I have to take advantage of what I see as hidden value.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Fever/Minnesota Lynx Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Just as I suspected, the Lynx came into Friday’s meeting with Indiana on a mission. Dropping 95 seemed easy for them against this vulnerable Fever defense, and I think Minnesota stays on that mission in this one. They’ll want to run it up here and atone for the last time Indiana visited Target Center and embarrassed them for the Commissioner’s Cup, so I have a reasonable suspicion that they’ll be scoring in the 90’s.
That should be aided by the expectation that Napheesa Collier returns tonight, and they’ll be in a national TV spot to showcase their strength. But once again the Fever showed that missing their top players can’t slow this offense down too much, and they should be able to contribute enough to push this game over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-14 (-0.45 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.