Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Nevada @ Penn St -42.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on CBS
If you’re a serious sports bettor, you always know the point spread, doesn’t matter what game. So then what would you call James Franklin who *always* seems to know the point spread? I’m not saying, I’m just saying, and that’s one of a few good reasons to back Penn State on this enormous spread. You also have to factor in that Franklin is 4-0 ATS as a 35-plus point favorite, and has wins of 56-0, 63-7, and 63-0 under his belt from the past two seasons.
What’s more, FBS teams laying 37.5 or more points against another FBS team in Week 1 are 15-1 ATS since 2013, so I’m definitely riding that trend. Nevada lost a ton of starters from a bad team last season and heads to Happy Valley in a prove-it year for the Nittany Lions, so I would expect a bloodbath here.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Nevada Team Total Under 6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
The Wolfpack lost their starting QB who was also their leading rusher, their top two running backs, and their top two receivers from last season. And now they have to face a Penn State team with a case for the best defense in the country and motivation to dominate in this game, so no, I don’t think they find the end zone today.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Nevada Alt Team Total Under 0.5 (+265; Odds via Fanduel)
Those Penn State wins of 56-0 and 63-0 from the past two years are really standing out in my mind, and this juicy of a return to pitch another shutout is too good to pass up.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Marshall @ Georgia -38.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN
This is purely a sprinkle on that red-hot system play I mentioned above, with favorites this size on a 15-1 ATS run. Marshall doesn’t particularly scare me, as their hot finish to last season ended up costing them their coach which spurred a mass exodus of talent into the transfer portal. So Georgia might accidentally cover this number just through their natural talent and depth, even though Kirby Smart likes to keep things fairly vanilla in games like this. But it’s the SEC where it just means more, and boosters expecting blowouts need to be placated, so UGA might try to get new starting QB Gunner Stockton some confidence in blowing out a bad opponent here.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Alabama A&M @ Arkansas -46.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:15 PM CT on SEC Network
You just have to go in and lay these big numbers with SEC teams against cupcakes from the FCS level. Alabama A&M knows why they’re in Fayetteville today: get taken to the woodshed and collect a big check for their trouble. They rolled over for Auburn last year in a 73-3 whipping, and Arkansas knows the drill as well since they destroyed Pine Bluff 70-0 to open last season. Razorbacks QB Taylen Green will be absolutely unstoppable in this matchup, and coach Sam Pittman knows that the expectations of a 46.5 point spread need to be exceeded to placate the faithful, so I expect that’s exactly what will happen.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Illinois State @ Oklahoma -35.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+
One last time if you haven’t been paying attention to the last two giant spreads for SEC home favorites: it just means more, and the expectation is that expectations get exceeded. That might be even more true for Oklahoma and coach Brent Venables, who is on the hot seat and needs to build up some good will with the boosters. A dismantling of Illinois State to start the year would certainly help, and OU is more than capable of it.
Illinois State has ventured into FBS stadiums twice in the past 3 seasons, losing 38-0 at Wisconsin in 2022 and 40-0 at Iowa last season, both Big Ten teams with myriad offensive issues. Now they visit SEC country where cupcakes go to get demolished, and have to face a Sooners squad with elite QB talent in John Mateer. Whether or not you think the gambling allegations against Mateer are valid, he will be in a foul mood and looking to make a statement. So a Sooners squad that has won its openers 73-0 and 51-3 the past couple seasons should absolutely roll again tonight.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Michigan Team Total Over 41.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBC
This is going to get ugly and out of hand. New Mexico was a fun team last season because of Devon Dampier and an electric offense, plus the fact that they couldn’t stop anything. When Dampier transferred out, so did a lot of the other talent on the roster including their top two tacklers. And those were the top tacklers on a defense that allowed the 5th-most points and 4th-most yards per game anyway. Michigan debuting prized and expensive QB Bryce Underwood tonight will likely want to make a statement and let him go wild against a soft defense, plus the Wolverines will likely keep scoring on accident late in this game, so look for them to hang a massive number tonight.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Missouri St/USC Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on BTN
I love Lincoln Riley because of how much he loves offense. So with USC unranked and debuting talented transfer QB Jayden Maiava tonight, my expectation is that Riley will want to showcase his offense and make a statement. That shouldn’t be too difficult against the newest member of FBS football in Missouri State, who should be an over team all season long.
The Bears couldn’t stop anything in FCS last season, allowing 30.2 PPG to that level of competition, and importantly giving up 59 and 45 to quality FCS programs NDSU and SDSU to close the year. So a USC team that typically shreds non-power 5 defenses to open seasons will have no trouble doing the bulk of the work in getting to this total. But the Trojans lost a ton of production on defense from last season, and Missouri State has a very capable offense led by a good pocket passer in Jacob Clark, so they’ll contribute as well in getting over this total.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Arkansas Pine Bluff @ Texas Tech -52.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+
It’s the Big12, not the SEC, but this one is still likely to mean more for Texas Tech and their boosters in particular. They paid a king’s ransom for NIL money to bring in an elite roster to try and win the Big12, and they’ll be expecting dividends in this season opener. That’s also why you bring in cupcake Pine Bluff for this game, as they also know to roll over and take their beating after losing by 70 to Arkansas last year. A repeat of Tech’s 2024 opener when Abilene Christian took them to OT will not be tolerated, so look for the Red Raiders to ride all that expensive talent to a massive blowout tonight.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Northern Arizona @ Arizona St -28.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m of the opinion that Arizona State got better this season after their magical CFP run last year. Especially on offense with added experience for Sam Leavitt at QB, a healthy Jordyn Tyson, and excellent running back Kanye Udoh transferring in from Army. Apparently head coach Kenny Dillingham isn’t in total agreement with me because he’s been mad at his team all summer, likely a motivating tactic to keep them from getting complacent due to last year’s unexpected success.
So I would have to assume that he will be coaching this team hard and expecting excellent performances across the board in this opening game, and that’s the way you cover big numbers against outmatched opponents. With such talent on offense it should be easy for ASU to torch an FCS opponent, and they haven’t taken it easy on this in-state little brother, running them out 40-3 a couple years ago in what was a bad season. The Devils rolled 48-7 in their opener last year, and I think Dillingham’s vigilance will prevent a lookahead to Mississippi St next week, so lay the big number here.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx/Connecticut Sun Over 163 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That’s the situation with this system play on the Lynx coming off a disappointing loss Thursday night as they look to make it 8-1 to the over in games following losses. The previous 8 games following a defeat are now averaging 175.3 PPG and are 7-1 over both the game total and tonight’s total. Things will be helped by facing one of the league’s worst defenses that Minnesota has already hung triple digits on this season, but the Sun can score a little bit better now than when they last met two months ago.
Connecticut has also shown an ability to get out and run, score in transition, and put up points in games where they’re getting blown out. That concept of a blowout over is what I’m counting on here from a Lynx team that cannot be pleased with Thursday’s performance, and Napheesa Collier specifically should be on a mission tonight. I’m fairly pleased with myself in finding and promoting this system play, so I’m not stopping with it now.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-12 (+1.68 Units) – Recommend: Tail
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.