Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) TCU/UNC First Half Under 27.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
Apparently I know nothing about college football, or have the reverse Meidas Touch, or maybe a fun combination of the two. But I do know about Bill Belichick and what he can do to a football game, especially from a defensive standpoint. I like Josh Hoover as the quarterback at TCU and thought he looked really good in stretches last season, so this TCU offense will be fine this season.
But I guarantee Hoover will see looks and schemes from the UNC defense tonight that he never knew were possible, and that should slow the Horned Frogs down early in this game. And Belichick is not known for high-octane offense either, so with dual threat transfer QB Gio Lopez at the helm, look for a lot of running from the Tar Heels that keeps the clock ticking. It’s another primetime, high profile spot which so far have produced very low-scoring starts this weekend, and I see another here.
MLB (1 Unit) SF Giants/Colorado Rockies Over 11.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on NBCS-BA
These are two offenses playing surprisingly well, and with the bad pitching we’ll see here it should send this well over the high total. For Colorado, it’s amazing to me that they keep sending Chase Dollander out at Coors to get shelled. It’s a large sample size now that says he can’t handle pitching at elevation, with 10 home starts generating a 9.88 ERA, a 2.02 WHIP, and a .341 opponent on-base average.
So a Giants team that has scored double-digit runs 3 times in their past 5 games should jump all over him, and they’ll need to in order to compensate for their own pitching problems. Kai-Wei Teng looks bad again this season in his limited work, and this first trip to elevation might really send him spiraling. San Fran’s best weapon was their bullpen until they traded it all away at the deadline, so you can also count on that unit surrendering more runs today. The last time these squads met in Coors they scored 11, 17, and 15 runs in that series, so I think more of that is coming today.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Napheesa Collier Over 23.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV
MV-Phee is coming off two subpar games by her standards, but this is an opportunity to get right in a big way. These past two disappointing games came because of a terrible shooting night against Seattle and limited minutes in a runaway against Connecticut, so I’m not worried about her slumping at all. Even if she was slumping, the cure for that is facing the Wings defense that is dead last in points allowed. They haven’t been close to stopping her in the three meetings so far this season, as she’s dropped 34, 28, and 28 again on them, so a return to her MVP-level scoring should be in order today.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Paige Bueckers Under 16.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Fading the WNBA rookie scoring recordholder isn’t fun, but she’s been a little off since the 44-point eruption almost two weeks ago. She’s stayed under this number in all three games since as inevitable regression caught up to her, plus she’s faced three strong defensive teams. That’s what the Lynx are as they rank 2nd in points allowed and 3rd in field goal percentage allowed, plus they’ve held Bueckers to 10 and 12 points in the two games she’s played against them. I’m sure she’ll have some extra motivation in front of the hometown crowd at Target Center today, but the under is the sharp side to be on here.
WNBA (1 Unit) Nneka Ogwumike Over 17.5 Points (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV
Backing Ogwumike on her points prop against her former team is something I’ll always be doing. She typically cooks the Sparks, averaging 23.7 PPG in the 7 times she’s faced them since joining Seattle, going 5-2 over this total in the process. I think she’ll be motivated here after a poor shooting performance against them in LA a few weeks ago, plus she averages 20.5 PPG at Climate Pledge Arena this season, so it’s a simple handicap for me here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-22 (-7.31 Units) – Recommend: Run Far Away
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.