Locks
NCAA Football (2 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Fanduel)
Air Force/UNLV Over 57.5: 2:30 PM CT on CBSSN
This game being indoors on the fast track at Allegiant Stadium should produce a ton of points. Neither team can stop anything, particularly Air Force who is giving up the third-most points per game in the country and the highest points-per-play rate nationally. Dan Mullen and UNLV will have no trouble exploiting that all day on their home turf as they’ve put up at least 30 in every game.
But the Rebels are much worse on defense than their record or stats would imply. They haven’t faced an opponent yet that ranks in the top-100 of points per game, which makes the fact that they’re allowing 26.0 PPG pretty scary. And you simply cannot take this Air Force offense lightly as they’re not the methodical running team of years past. I think this game is played in the 30’s at minimum, so being able to knock the total down to just above 8 touchdowns is great value for a potential barnburner.
Arkansas/Tennessee Over 61.5: 3:15 PM CT on SEC Network
It’s the first game of the newest iteration of the Bobby Petrino era at Arkansas, and I smell fireworks. Petrino is guaranteed to take the restrictor plates off this offense that Sam Pittman was likely holding back, both from an aggressiveness and tempo standpoint. Arkansas has never had a problem moving the ball this season as they’re sixth nationally in yards per game, but ranking 101st in plays per game has to have Petrino fuming.
Marrying that with the opponent on the other side, Tennessee, scoring the second-most PPG and having the fourth-best yards-per-point rate in the country, is why this total is sniffing 70 points. Tennessee will not hold back against a bad defense allowing 43.0 PPG to its FBS opponents as Josh Heupel loves to bully vulnerable defenses. So with Petrino getting the Razorbacks offense out of first gear, expect this one to rack up points in a hurry.
Kansas @ Texas Tech -7.5: 6:30 PM CT on FOX
Turns out all that bought-and-paid-for talent in Lubbock has actually made for a really good team. Texas Tech is smashing opponents behind an unstoppable offense and surprisingly elite defense. This number has crept up above two touchdowns over the course of the week, otherwise I’d be laying 13.5 or even 14 flat with the Red Raiders.
Being able to move it under two scores feels like cheating, as Tech should be fired up for their first home game in almost a month. Kansas has underwhelmed in my opinion this season even with Jalon Daniels at the helm, and aren’t ready for what is the toughest opponent they have on their entire schedule. Tech should look to show out on national TV here, and a double-digit final margin shouldn’t be much to ask.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Fanduel)
New Mexico/Boise State Over 51.5: 8:45 PM CT on FS1
I think Boise State comes into this game with bad intentions after getting stifled at Notre Dame last week. It’s happened before this season, as they were shut down on the road to open the season, then came home and put up 51 on Eastern Washington. Those poor FCS players never stood a chance, but New Mexico’s defense isn’t a whole lot better when you factor in the competition they’ve faced, so the Broncos can put up a huge number again.
Boise has hung 39.4 PPG on the Lobos across the past 5 meetings, never shy about running up the score. But they didn’t meet last season, and that’s when things turned around for the New Mexico offense as they’re now a force to be reckoned with. Jack Layne and company have shown what they can do against some solid defenses, which I don’t think applies to Boise right now. Certainly not if there are points available in garbage time of a blowout, but I think this stays relatively competitive and easily clears the adjusted total.
Arizona State @ Utah -2.5: 9:15 PM CT on ESPN
The spread in this game took off as soon as Sam Leavitt was announced as out for the Sun Devils. With backup QB Jeff Sims taking over, on the road in a hostile environment, at elevation with ESPN in the house, I don’t like ASU’s chances. It Utah is allowed to stack the box against what should be a very run-heavy approach, their front seven will shut ASU down here. The Utes need games like this to keep pace in the Big12 race for any hope of competing for a conference title, and being able to get them back to a field goal margin makes them a solid play in my opinion.
Utah State/Hawaii Over 50.5: 11:00 PM CT on Spectrum Sports
Utah State overs until further notice. This offense is very underrated, having performed admirably in two road games against SEC defenses so far this season. The Aggies can’t stop anything against decent offenses though, and they’ll see one here with Micah Alejado and Hawaii having rounded into form last week.
The Warriors have put up big numbers when they’re fortunate enough to face bad defenses like they’ll see tonight, and should build off their 44-point outburst at Air Force last time out. Speaking of Air Force, it can’t be ignored that both of these teams have faced the Falcons, and both of those games ended with 79 points on the board. So I don’t know why this total isn’t in the 60’s and moving it to a hair over 50 should make it very easy to clear.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 24-19 (-0.85 Units) – Recommend: Tail
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.