Locks
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Arkansas +17.5 @ Georgia (-110): 11:00 AM CT on ESPN
This game strikes me as Georgia coming in overvalued with blowout wins over poor competition, while Arkansas isn’t getting the credit it deserves for its own record.
Georgia has steamrolled three straight cupcakes by an average 46 point margin, but that’s disguising how they looked against Clemson in a game that should be similar to this one. Arkansas comes into this game 11th in points allowed and 12th in yards allowed – arguably a better defense than the unit Georgia struggled with versus Clemson – and held high-powered Texas to only 21 points. But with KJ Jefferson and Treylon Burks, the Razorbacks have weapons on offense at a level that Georgia has yet to face, and they have the talent to keep Arkansas in this game singlehandedly.
The Hogs as dogs have been an excellent bet under coach Sam Pittman, going 9-3 ATS in his 12 games catching points. This is a smart system play in general with a low total and big spread, so in a game that should be a defensive battle, I’ll gladly take all these points with the Razorbacks.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Tennessee @ Missouri -2.5 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on SEC Network
These two teams might both be 2-2 and tied in the SEC East standings, but that does not mean they’ve had anything close to similar paths to this point.
The Tennessee Volunteers are still a long way away from relevance in Josh Heupel’s first season. Their two wins coming against total cupcake schools shows that, while the Missouri Tigers have had much stiffer tests so far. Plus, going back to last season Tennessee is 0-7 as an underdog, losing by 18.7 PPG.
Mizzou’s two losses have both come by 7 points, on the road against teams that are undefeated. While their defense has not looked good, their offense behind quarterback Connor Bazelak can score with the best of them. To me, this game shapes up a lot like Tennessee’s home loss to Pittsburgh where they allowed 41 points to another strong offense and quarterback.
It’s looking like rainy conditions could slow things down a bit and spoil an entertaining track meet in this one. But I see a more experienced Missouri team being able to put up enough points here while keeping a young Tennessee squad at arm’s length.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Michigan @ Wisconsin -1.5 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on FOX
The undefeated 14th-ranked team in the country is playing a 1-2 team and is an underdog. Like that carton of milk in the fridge that you can’t remember when you bought it, this line smells funny and is trying to tell you something.
So what gives here? I see a lot of surface-level metrics painting an inaccurate picture of this Wisconsin team, particularly when you consider last week’s result. Notre Dame scored 31 fourth-quarter points on the Badgers with 50 total yards of offense for one of the most misleading final scores you’ll ever see. Combine that with a 6-point loss to Penn State where the Badgers led in the 4th and you have a team that could easily be undefeated themselves.
Michigan is having a ton of trouble on offense right now, with big-play receiver Ronnie Bell lost for the season and Cade McNamara struggling at quarterback. A Wisconsin defense allowing 25(!!) rushing yards per game will be able to dare McNamara to beat them. The Wolverines are also terrible as an underdog, having never won a game when catching points under Jim Harbaugh. In what should be a low-scoring slugfest I’ll take Wisconsin at essentially a pick’em in a do-or-die spot for their season.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Texas/Texas Christian Over 65 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on ABC
It’s really looking like Steve Sarkisian’s offensive genius is having a pretty good impact on this Texas program already. After scoring 58 and 70 points the past two weeks, the Longhorns take aim at another in-state rival with defensive issues.
If not for facing FCS Duquesne to start the season, TCU’s yardage allowed per game against their FBS competition would put them 128th in the country. They could not stop anything from SMU last week, particularly on the ground, and now have to face one of the best running backs in the country in Bijan Robinson. With Robinson and dual-threat QB Casey Thompson improving every week, Texas now ranks 7th in the country in rushing and should get whatever they want against the Horned Frogs.
The Texas offense didn’t travel particularly well against the excellent defense of Arkansas, but against this TCU unit, I see them continuing their onslaught of the past couple of weeks. With a veteran QB in Max Duggan, TCU can produce plenty of points of their own, and a rivalry game atmosphere should give us a lot of offense in this one.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Louisville @ Wake Forest -6.5 (-110): 11:30 AM CT on ESPN3
This Wake Forest team just keeps getting more and more impressive, could actually contend for the ACC title, and has a chance to make another statement here.
Louisville might be 3-1 on the season, but their wins have come against an FCS school, at home on a walk-off pick-six, and by one score against a Florida St team in full meltdown. The Cardinals have also not been good in this situation, just 4-11 ATS in their past 15 as a road underdog, as well as 3-12 ATS their past 15 games against ranked opponents. They’ve struggled to stop the pass despite a relatively moderate schedule, and will likely get carved up by Sam Hartman and a Wake offense that’s 23rd nationally in scoring.
The Demon Deacons are definitely ascending in the ACC, as evidenced by their 6-1 ATS record in their past 7 conference games. But the market hasn’t quite caught up with a program that hasn’t shaken their historical perception yet, so at less than a touchdown, I’ll back this rising Wake team.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Ole Miss/Alabama over 79.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on CBS
This total is poised to be the highest in an SEC game over the past 20 years, but with these two teams, coaches, and quarterbacks I don’t see that being a problem. It’s very telling that this total opened at 77.5 (above the key number of 11 touchdowns) yet attracted early sharp action that drove it here. I can’t recall ever seeing a total open that high and have the over get hit so hard by smart money, but I can’t really think of a game similar to this one either.
I just don’t know who is going to stop who in this game, and I wish I could find a prop on the odds of there being zero punts. Alabama has been absolutely destroying Ole Miss recently, averaging 59.6 PPG against the Rebels over the past 5 seasons. Lane Kiffin isn’t standing by and taking it though, hanging 48 on the Tide last season in a 111 point game, then coming back this year with an even more impressive and aggressive offense. And with quarterbacks Bryce Young and Matt Corral vying for the Heisman trophy, both programs will be eager to rack up stats and points for their respective resumes.
Also important to note for this game is that the line opened with Alabama laying 20 points, but has moved all the way to 14.5. That should tell you a closer game is expected here, and a back-and-forth type game should create more scoring to get this over the high total.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Ole Miss Team Total Over 32.5 (-110)
Wait, what? The highest-scoring team in the country, averaging 52.7 PPG, only needs to score 33 points here? The same team that averaged 40.7 PPG against SEC defenses in last season’s pandemic year, and now finally had the benefit of an offseason to fully implement Lane Kiffin’s system? The Rebels team that dropped 48 on Alabama last season and only got better, more aggressive, and has had two weeks to scheme for this game? Yes, please.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Army -9.5 @ Ball State (-110): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This Army team just keeps on marching (pun intended) down the field and through opponents from week to week, and this matchup should really benefit them.
Ball State is a great victim for the Army triple-option offense that’s being executed to perfection this season. The Black Knights are averaging the 2nd most rush yards per game this season and will face a Cardinals team that gets gashed for 5.3 yards per carry. When the team that’s 107th in run defense faces a team that only runs the ball – and at an elite level – ugliness generally ensues. That disparity is causing a lot of the statistical models I’ve seen to project a result more than double this spread.
In a season where they’ve yet to cover a spread or score more than 13 points against an FBS opponent, Ball State looks primed to get run over again here. It would be nice if this line was inside a touchdown, but at the end of the day, I see Army grinding another opponent into the ground here.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Western Kentucky +11 @ Michigan State (-110): 6:30 PM CT on FS1
Last week I highlighted the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky as a team to watch, and they almost pulled the upset as big underdogs. I’m back to supporting them this week as they have another crack at a Big 10 team that’s been riding a little too high this season.
Michigan State comes into this game having shown a lot more of their true self against Nebraska last week. That overtime win was what happens when this team takes their opponent too lightly, and what better spot to take a game for granted than against a C-USA opponent the week before conference play starts? WKU put up 31 points against a strong Indiana defense, and their passing attack that averages the most yards per game should move the ball with ease against a Spartans defense that’s 106th in passing yards allowed.
Michigan State just isn’t a team you want to back in this spot either, as they’re 1-13 ATS in their past 14 games as a home favorite, plus 4-11 ATS the past 15 times laying double digits. I still don’t think this Hilltoppers team is on the national radar, but they have a good shot at getting on it in a big way here so take the points.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Ohio State @ Rutgers +15 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on Big10 Network
At 4-0, Rutgers is one of six FBS teams with a perfect ATS record. They’re also 8-2 ATS their past 10 as an underdog and have covered the past two seasons against Ohio State.
NCAA Football Indiana @ Penn State -12 (-110): 6:30 PM on ABC
This is a massive revenge spot for Penn State after the questionable overtime loss to start last season at Indiana. Nittany Lions coach James Franklin is also one of the coaches most aware of the point spread in the country.
NCAA Football Boston College +15 @ Clemson (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ACC Network
Has the end arrived for the Clemson dynasty? Going back to the 2019 national championship game, Clemson is 5-12 ATS and hasn’t covered in 5 straight. They only have 2 wins in those 5 games: over an FCS team and by 6 over GA Tech as 27.5 point favorites.
Tiny Nick is 390-288 ATS (+94.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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