Locks
NFL (2 Units) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons (PK): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
The Dolphins are broken, there’s simply no other way to describe this team. The quarterback and coach and plenty of other players are taking shots at each other publicly, so who knows how bad it is behind closed doors. Things are even worse on the field as they can’t stop turning it over, and have no hopes of stopping the run today.
Bijan Robinson is going to go wild against the 31st run defense by EPA/play, and that is going to determine this game regardless of Kirk Cousins stepping in at quarterback. The Falcons epitomize the week-to-week nature of this league, and are far better at home than what they’ve shown in their past 2 road games. Also, Tua is now 1-9 SU in his past 10 road starts, so just asking Atlanta to come away with a win here is too good to pass up.
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots (PK): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
I don’t quite know what to think of the Patriots, as they’ve beaten some pretty bad teams to take over first in the AFC East. But if they’re good at taking care of business against bad teams, then here comes another one for them to pad their record against. Drake Maye’s breakout is likely to slow down a bit today against such a good defense with the Browns top-5 in both EPA/play and success rate allowed.
But Dillon Gabriel and this offense going on the road is not a recipe for success, and it shouldn’t take much production for New England to pull ahead and hold that lead today. When the Pats get a lead of 6 or more points at any point in games this season they’re 5-0 both straight up and ATS, so I think they do just that again here.
Tennessee Titans/Indianapolis Colts Over 40.5: 3:25 PM CT on CBS
This total has jumped up throughout the week, and how could you not expect points with this Colts squad taking the field. Indianapolis is the most efficient offense by points-per-drive through 7 weeks this century, and are simply not going to be slowed down today. Tennessee is already 27th in defensive EPA/play and will be without Jeffrey Simmons and La’Jarius Sneed today.
The Colts will not be stopped against that thin of a defense, which is one they already put 41 points on this season outdoors when the Titans had better health. But Indy is not without their own defensive issues, ranking just 28th in defensive success rate, and should allow points to Tennessee in garbage time at the very least. So a total like this, which the Colts have cleared in all 7 of their games this season, should be no problem in a probable blowout.
NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
Buffalo Bills/Carolina Panthers Over 39.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX
The Panthers are a far better offense at home, and might get a boost today with the change to Andy Dalton at quarterback. The Red Rifle doesn’t give Carolina any improvement in the straight up or ATS record department over Bryce Young, but they do improve from an EPA/play and success rate standpoint when he comes in.
And until Buffalo proves otherwise, this defense is extremely vulnerable, especially on the ground. With Carolina running the ball so well right now that should help them produce points, but the defense is still a problem. Here comes Buffalo comes in off the bye, healthier on offense and looking to make a statement, so expect a big offensive showing from them. Moving this total below 40 is just too good to pass up with Carolina averaging 29.0 PPG at home, so I like a semi-shootout to unfold here.
Dallas Cowboys/Denver Broncos Over 43.5: 3:25 PM CT on CBS
Do you want to take the under in a Cowboys game right now? I don’t, regardless of where they’re playing which is saying something given how this offense has looked outside of Dallas the past few years. So even in Denver, where they’ll face a really tough defense, I’m expecting points from both them and the Broncos.
Denver figuring out the offense just in time last week should carry over against a Dallas defense that is 29th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate allowed. And despite Denver’s great metrics profile defensively, there are vulnerabilities that an offense as hot as what the Cowboys have should exploit. The bottom line is Dallas has cleared this total in all of their games, regardless of injuries on offense which are minimal right now, so another over should be coming.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts -7.5: 3:25 PM CT on CBS
I mentioned above that the Titans have no hope of stopping Indianapolis in this game, just none. The Titans make a strong argument for being the worst team in the league, and they’ve been dominated in division play lately. Tennessee is 2-12 ATS in their past 14 AFC South games, along with 0-5 both straight up and ATS in their past 5 meetings with the Colts specifically.
Indy just seems to be taking pleasure in stomping outmatched opponents at home, and I think this one gets out of hand to the point where laying more than 2 touchdowns isn’t crazy. But only needing them to win by less than double digits feels like stealing with how the Colts are playing.
NFL (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots -3.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
This really boils down to a sneaky trend for the red-hot Drake Maye, who is 9-3 ATS on the first half spread in his past 12 games. That puts him in pretty good company, as that’s tied with Kansas City for best in the league over that span. The Patriots are also 3rd in first half scoring this season, while Cleveland is scoring the 3rd-fewest points before halftime. As I mentioned above I have next to no faith in Dillon Gabriel on the road, where the Browns have totaled a 39-13 deficit in first halves this season. So even if it’s just a 7-3 score in favor of the Patriots at half, this should be a relatively easy cover for a hot team.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bears Team Total Over 22 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
A lot has changed in this game with the announcement that Lamar Jackson will miss another week. But that hasn’t had too much of an impact on Chicago’s team total, which has barely risen a point from earlier in the week. I think they clear it like they have every week this season, with Ben Johnson beating expectations on a regular basis with this offense. Regardless of whether Jackson played for Baltimore, this defense is still highly problematic as they rank 30th in both EPA/play and success rate allowed. Chicago should be able to run and throw on a unit that’s still thinned out by injury and allowing a lot of points this season.
NFL (0.75 Unit) Houston Texans Team Total Under 21.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
Asking this Houston offense to score more than 3 touchdowns in a couple of weeks seems like a tall order right now, much less in a single game. The 4 opponents Houston has faced with a semi-competent defense have held them under this total, and now they come into this game with a ton of injuries to navigate on offense. No Nico Collins in particular will make the Texans struggle to move the ball on an improving 49ers defense, which will undoubtedly take advantage of Houston’s terrible offensive line. The Texans being a short favorite inflates this isolated total a little bit to where I’m very comfortable playing the under, so look for another futile day for the Houston offense here.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Bijan Robinson Over 90.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Bijan Robinson Longest Rush Over 19.5 Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Tyler Allgeier Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Tyler Allgeier Anytime TD (+135)
0.75 Unit – D’Andre Swift Over 75.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+180)
0.5 Unit – Cam Skattebo Over 79.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 5.5 Receptions (+100)
1 Unit – Rico Dowdle Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Dalton Kincaid Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Dalton Kincaid Alt Over 4.5 Receptions (+145)
0.25 Unit – Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD (+210)
0.5 Unit – Khalil Shakir Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)
0.75 Unit – Mason Taylor Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Cade Otton Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Cade Otton Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)
0.25 Unit – Cade Otton Anytime TD (+180)
0.25 Unit – Tez Johnson Anytime TD (+290)
0.75 Unit – Tyler Warren Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Tyler Warren Anytime TD (+110)
0.5 Unit – Daniel Jones Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Cam Ward Over 206.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Bo Nix Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jake Ferguson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – George Pickens Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Evan Engram Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Brandon Aubrey Over 8.5 Kicking Points (-110)
0.5 Unit – Will Lutz Over 8.5 Kicking Points (-110)
0.75 Unit – Tucker Kraft Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Tucker Kraft Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)
0.25 Unit – Tucker Kraft Anytime TD (+135)
0.5 Unit – Jonnu Smith Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Pat Freiermuth Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Darnell Washington Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Aaron Rodgers Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 23-33 (-7.13 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.