Locks
NFL (1 Unit) Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions -7.5 (-105; Odds via BetMGM): 7:15 PM CT on ABC
This is just a great spot for Detroit to bounce back off their embarrassing beatdown at the hands of Baltimore last week. A blue-collar team like this, with the leadership style of Dan Campbell, should be ready to jump all over a bad Las Vegas squad.
This is really how the season has gone for the Lions, beating up on bad teams while struggling with the good ones. Their three games against teams that are top-10 in DVOA have seen them go 1-2 both straight up and ATS. But their four other games all came against opponents ranked 20th or worse in DVOA, and all four were blowout wins by 14-plus points. The Raiders currently sit at 30th in DVOA metrics.
And there’s historical precedent that says the Lions roll here. Teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better coming off a blowout loss are 80-39-1 ATS the next week. When laying more than 5.5 points, that record jumps to 29-9 ATS, so I think the Raiders are in big trouble tonight.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Detroit Lions First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-120; Odds via BetMGM)
I think that big trouble starts early as the Lions look to jump out to a big lead for the home crowd in primetime. The Lions are averaging 14.1 first half points this season, including 18.3 in their home games. Meanwhile, the Raiders are allowing 13.0 first half points and 18.0 on the road, despite having the benefit of a schedule that includes the inept offenses of the Packers, Patriots, Broncos, Steelers, and Bears. Two touchdowns seems like a bargain here for a Detroit squad looking to take out some frustrations.
MNF Bonus Props (Odds via DraftKings)
(1 Unit) Jimmy Garoppolo Over 22.5 Pass Completions (-110)
(0.25 Unit) Jahmyr Gibbs Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
(0.25 Unit) Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 Receptions (+125)
(0.25 Unit) Michael Mayer Over 2.5 Receptions (+115)
MLB (1 Unit) Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-105; Odds via Fanduel): 7:03 PM CT on FOX
If you traveled back in time to August and told me I’d be backing Brandon Pfaadt over Max Scherzer in a World Series game, I would’ve died laughing at you. It was around that time that Pfaadt had an ERA north of 8.00 and was getting crushed in every home start. But credit the rookie for turning things around down the stretch, and becoming a key member of the Arizona pitching staff this postseason. Pfaadt has posted a 2.70 ERA in his 4 playoff appearances, with the Diamondbacks winning all of those 4 games.
Things have not gone well for Scherzer meanwhile, with the veteran looking rusty against the Astros and saying he has a cut on the thumb of his pitching hand. He just hasn’t been able to locate his off-speed pitches, which will be trouble against this patient and disciplined Snakes lineup. With Arizona having so much momentum and looking like the vastly better team for all but the 9th inning of Game 1, this should be a good spot for them to take a 2-1 series lead.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+115; Odds via Fanduel)
With Scherzer not being sharp at all, having location and injury issues, plus facing this hot Arizona lineup, I think they get to scoring early and often. The D’Backs didn’t break the game open until late in Game 2, but they had to face the best starter Texas has in that game. I think this goes more like Game 1 where Arizona got all 5 of their runs in the first 5 innings, and I love the attractive juice here.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The NBA’s best rebounding team through the first few games of the season is your Minnesota Timberwolves. They’ve been taken to that level thanks in large part to Rudy Gobert who is 3rd in the league in rebounding. He’s gone over this in both games against teams much better than Atlanta is on the boards, so I think he can overpower a fairly undersized Hawks team tonight and cash a nice plus-money return.
NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz/Denver Nuggets First Half Over 111.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude
Be sure to monitor the injury report for this game in case of any rest shenanigans with the Nuggets on a back-to-back tonight. But as of this morning there doesn’t appear to be anything like that going on, and that honestly makes this number look like a misprint. I actually went and checked it all over the place because of how low it seems, but I’m seeing the same thing everywhere.
That’s wild in my opinion since these teams are a combined 6-0 over this total on the season. Denver’s games are averaging 118.0 first half points, while Utah’s games are averaging 121.0 first half points. With those results, even if this number was a misprint I’d still play the over at several points higher. The Jazz have been awful on defense so far, ranked dead last in defensive rating, and the Nuggets should be somewhat tired on their back-to-back. I think that helps create plenty of early scoring to get over this number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1563-1407 ATS (+73.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.