Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
New Mexico/UNLV Over (55): 2:00 PM CT on Mountain West Network
I love knocking 7 points off a total like this and getting it through a lot of key numbers, it’s almost too good to be true. Especially between two teams like this who are typically dysfunctional on the defensive side of the ball. New Mexico hasn’t stopped any offense with a pulse when they’ve gone on the road, allowing 36.7 PPG in 3 games away from home, and UNLV will be very prepared offensively after their bye.
Dan Mullen can coach offense, and this team has been excellent at racking up yards and points at home on the fast track in Allegiant Stadium. But they rank 107th in yards per point and 117th in points per play allowed while not facing a particularly strong schedule. New Mexico owns a much better offense than anyone gives them credit for, and should be able to keep up to some degree with the Rebels and get this over the adjusted total.
Texas Tech (-0.5) @ Kansas State: 2:30 PM CT on FOX
Kansas State has resurrected their season to some degree after that disastrous start, putting together three wins and a 1-point loss against teams in the bottom half of the Big12. Today is a completely different situation against one of the elite teams in the country that is fighting for its CFP life. Texas Tech has zero margin for error if they hope to get the Big12 auto-bid, and I think they have some key advantages today.
First is the return of Behren Morton at quarterback, who allows the Red Raiders to play their usual air raid offense. Nobody has had an answer for that this season when Tech is firing on all cylinders, and I don’t think K-State will either. The Wildcats are severely outmatched up front in this game on both sides of the ball, and the nation’s best pass rush is going to force Avery Johnson into mistakes, especially if he’s trying to keep pace with an elite Tech offense. This will be one of Tech’s tougher tests, but I think they come out of it unscathed and only asking them to win on this number is good value.
South Carolina @ Ole Miss (-5): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
Speaking of teams with little to no margin for error, Ole Miss is one loss from being on the outside looking in at the CFP bids for their conference. The SEC will get plenty of teams in, but the Rebels need to stay on track so only asking them to cover this much shorter number is what I want from this team. They seem to understand the assignment, posting an impressive road win over Oklahoma last week.
That proved to me that this offense is close to matchup-proof, as no defense seems to have the answer to Lane Kiffin’s offense being driven by Trinidad Chambliss. They’ll face another tough defense here with South Carolina, but the Gamecocks just won’t be able to keep up. This offense is a major disappointment and the main reason this season is toast for them after 3 straight losses. All of their SEC losses have come by at least this margin, most against teams with far less impressive offenses than they’ll see today, and I don’t think they can keep it within double digits much less this short number.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Julius Randle Over 24.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
If I knew for sure that LaMelo Ball was playing tonight, I’d take the over in the game. But I’ll stay away from that due to the uncertainty while still expecting an over environment that can help the prop market thrive. Randle should be a main beneficiary of that environment, as he has shown up to carry the scoring load in Ant’s absence so far. Facing a Charlotte defense that’s 27th in defensive efficiency and 26th in effective field goal rate allowed should let Randle get whatever he wants. I think he continues to embrace his inner ball hog and scorer’s mentality to clear this total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-33 (-2.77 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.