Locks
NFL (2 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-1.5): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
The Lions with Jared Goff and Dan Campbell off the bye are about as dangerous as it gets, and I think this is a runaway tomorrow. Sorry Vikings fans, it’s just too strong of a trend, as Goff is 15-4 ATS with extended rest in his time in Detroit. He has also tormented the Vikings, going 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS against Minnesota in his career. The Lions are one of my top overall picks in ATS contests for the week, so you better believe I’m maxing out their value on teases, it’s just that simple.
LA Chargers (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans: 12:00 PM CT on CBS
This one is also very simple because of a ridiculous ATS trend that headlines this game. The Titans are historically bad right now, having lost 11 straight home games ATS which has never happened since the AFL and NFL merged in 1970. They’re also 5-23-1 ATS in their past 29 games overall, so again, the Chargers are looking pretty good laying 9.5 points today. But getting them down to under a field goal, against a team that is playing as poorly as Tennessee, can’t be passed up, period.
Indianapolis Colts/Pittsburgh Steelers Over 44: 12:00 PM CT on CBS
The Steel Curtain alumni must not be able to watch this abysmal display of defense that Pittsburgh is rolling out there this season. Ranking 25th in defensive EPA and 23rd in defensive success rate is an embarrassment for Mike Tomlin, and things only get more difficult today with the league’s best offense coming to town. The Colts cannot be stopped right now, and even playing outdoors shouldn’t slow this offense down too much on a perfect day in Pittsburgh. But the Colts also struggle defensively, are experiencing cluster injuries in the secondary, and should give up a lot of points as well. Once again I think the standard number here is very much in play, but knocking a full touchdown off is amazing value.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Houston Texans Team Total Under 20.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
I got fooled once chasing the Texans team total last week, expecting this offense to keep being awful but they proved me wrong. That was against the decimated defense of the 49ers, so go ahead Houston, fool me again here. Now you’re up against a Broncos defense that’s the league’s best by success rate allowed and 5th-best by EPA per play, which is an entirely different situation.
The Texans are also sending their tragically bad offensive line up against the team that leads the league in sacks, so I’m anticipating a lot of negative plays forced by Denver today. This team total being lined just one point lower than last week is not proper valuation in my opinion, so I’ll take another shot on their under here.
NFL (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Saints @ LA Rams -3.5 First Quarter (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 3:05 PM CT on FOX
I’m never too keen on laying two touchdowns with anyone in the NFL, but this game is a massive mismatch and I have to get involved somehow. So I’ll look to the first quarter which has been a nightmare for New Orleans this season, as they’re just 1-7 ATS in the opening frame of their games. That’s what happens when you rank dead last in both first quarter scoring and first quarter points allowed.
And now the Saints are turning the keys over to rookie Tyler Shough, who couldn’t beat out Spencer Rattler in camp and has to make his first start on the road against a rested opponent. The Rams have had a bye week to prepare and get healthy, welcoming Puka Nacua back to practice this week and he’s not listed on the injury report. So I think LA goes right down the field for a touchdown while the Saints flail around for most of the game, giving the Rams an early cover.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.75 Unit – Caleb Williams Over 241.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Justin Herbert Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Oronde Gadsden Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Elic Ayomanor Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Chimere Dike Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Tucker Kraft Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Tyler Warren Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Davante Adams Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Josh Allen Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Khalil Shakir Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Travis Kelce Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Jaxson Smith-Njigba Over 98.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jaxson Smith-Njigba Over 7.5 Receptions (+105)
NBA (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers Team Total Over 120.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on YES
Just because the Sixers dropped their first game of the season on Friday night doesn’t mean I’m going to stop backing them. And just because the Nets finally held an opponent under their team total doesn’t mean I’m going to stop fading them. Put those two stubborn resolutions together and I give you Sixers team total tonight.
The Nets are still the worst defense in the league, dead last in literally everything, and their last game holding Atlanta to just 117 points was a mirage since Trae Young barely played. This Philly team has too much firepower for a matchup like this and have absolutely torched the bad defenses they’ve faced thus far, so I see tonight as no different.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-33 (-2.77 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.