Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
Syracuse @ Miami (-21.5): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN
The Hurricane officially find themselves on the outside of the CFP looking in after the initial rankings. That means they have zero margin for error and style points carry a lot of weight. This team is too talented to not crush a bad Syracuse squad that has seen the wheels fall off after getting soundly beaten by UNC at home.
The Orange have played three ACC contenders so far this season, losing all three by an average margin of 24.3 points, so they’re susceptible to getting blown out. And we’ve seen this scenario with Miami before, hosting a weak opponent after a damaging loss, and they rolled by 35 in that game. I think we see an angry Canes squad run it up, but knocking 7 points off the number is too good to pass up.
Auburn @ Vanderbilt (PK): 3:00 PM CT on SEC Network
The season is over for Auburn, as the Tigers have fallen to 1-5 in SEC play and have only managed any offense against a bad Arkansas team the past 5 games. But Vanderbilt on the other hand still has something to say, and I think they can make a statement here after a tough loss last week. The Commodores have been elite at defending home turf in the Clark Lea and Diego Pavia era, even though the role of favorite is an unusual one for them. So I’m not going to ask too much of Vandy here, even against a weak opponent, but getting the win feels easy enough in a bounce back spot.
Air Force/San Jose State (Over 58.5): 5:00 PM CT on FS1
I refuse to believe that anything is fixed defensively for Air Force after two games that were fairly low-scoring affairs. One of those was against Army, and that’s just how service academy matchups go, and the other was against an offensively challenged Wyoming squad that’s outside the top-115 in efficiency metrics. Things should get back to normal here against San Jose State who can and will throw it all over a bad Falcons pass defense.
It’s truly the perfect matchup for a Spartans team that leads the country in passing play percentage and passing yards per game, facing the defense that is 134th in completion percentage allowed and 133rd in yardage allowed. But SJSU struggles to stop much of anything themselves, so Air Force should be able to participate in a shootout here. These teams have three common opponents on the season, and those 6 games have averaged 62.3 PPG, so putting these teams on the same field should result in fireworks.
NBA (1 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Philadelphia 76ers 1st Quarter Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on NBCS-PH
Everyone, and I mean everyone, puts up a ton of early points on this Philadelphia squad. I don’t understand it, they should be better defensively, but they aren’t, allowing 33.5 first quarter points per game which is by far the worst in the league. When you have a worse early-game defense than Brooklyn, you should take a long look in the mirror, but the Sixers prefer to just get into first quarter shootouts.
They can score like crazy too, putting up the 5th-most points in opening quarters, and I’m simply backing their first quarter overs blindly at this point. Toronto has been weak defensively and are on no rest, ranking 21st in efficiency and seeing their first quarters average 61.0 points this season, so I think we see another high-flying opening frame tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Kelly Oubre Over 14.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Consistency is something I love to see in the prop market, and that’s what Oubre has been up to this season. With at least 17 points in his past 7 games and an average of 17.6 on the season, Oubre has been rewarding his backers, especially since his totals are held down by other higher-profile Sixers stars. But with Paul George remaining out and Joel Embiid not looking good for this game, his role should be elevated again and I think he keeps cashing points props here.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Pacers @ Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude
There’s just no way this is a serious number that books have put out for this matchup. This is half a point bigger than what the Nuggets were laying last night to Golden State, who managed to get Jimmy Butler ready for that game. Denver still steamrolled the Warriors, as they tend to do at Ball Arena from the opening tip. The Pacers are a much worse outfit, with some really ugly losses starting to pile up, and happen to be last in first quarter scoring so far this season. That just won’t do in Denver where the Nuggets lead the league in average first half margin, and even on no rest I think they stomp the Pacers in the opening frame.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Towson @ Houston -16 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Houston failing to cover in their opener and coming nowhere near handing out a beatdown to lowly Lehigh might be the best thing for Cougars backers possible. That simply isn’t going to fly with Kelvin Sampson, who is going to have worked this team to the bone all week in practice. Poor Towson is walking into a buzzsaw here if that’s what Houston has been up to since Monday, and they should get carved up from the opening tip.
Houston did manage to cover the first half number on Monday, furthering their reliability in that angle, but now face a much easier number in arguably a more motivated spot. This Towson team’s glacial pace is one that gives Houston a run for their money, but they just don’t have an efficient enough offense to score enough points on those limited possessions against the best defense in the country. That should allow the Cougs to pull away and right some of the wrongs from their opener.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 28-23 (+3.26 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.