Locks
NFL (2 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
SF 49ers/Cleveland Browns Under (42.5): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
The bad weather reports have chipped away at this total all week, so I’ll bump it back up to where it opened with this tease. Precipitation won’t be an issue today, but wind certainly will and that’s the biggest driver of unders aside from freezing rain. I would expect a heavy dose of running back carries by both teams, with limited offense even if this game was indoors.
The Browns offense obviously has its limitations with Shedeur Sanders, and their heavy usage of 21 personnel is something the 49ers defend very well. And Cleveland’s defense always holds firm at home, plus this is a tough schematic matchup for the San Fran offense, so add in blustery conditions and this should stay well under the total.
Arizona Cardinals/Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over (37.5): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
I simply don’t understand how you can make a total in the low 40’s when either of these teams are playing right now. Neither defense can stop anything, as the Bucs have allowed 19 or more to every opponent not named the Saints this season. Arizona meanwhile has been absolutely torched in recent weeks, but finally have a quarterback in Jacoby Brissett who can participate in shootouts effectively.
Part of me thinks this total was put in place with the expectation that Teddy Bridgewater would be playing for the Bucs, but that doesn’t look like the case. Baker Mayfield should be fine for today, and with the Cardinals unable to generate any pressure on the quarterback, he should stay upright and pick apart this bad defense. Both teams are too shorthanded defensively to stop anything from the quality offenses in this game, so look for an easy over on this adjusted total.
Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers (-2.5): 3:25 PM CT on CBS
The Raiders are a dead team walking, it’s as simple as that. This squad can’t wait for Cancun in 6 weeks, and they should be in big trouble against a rested, angry Chargers squad. LA got an extra week to bounce back from the disastrous game in Jacksonville, and I have to believe Jim Harbaugh with extra preparation will have his team ready to go.
Not that it takes a ton of preparation to beat this minor league team from Las Vegas, but the Chargers are in a great spot nonetheless. LA has not forgiven the Raiders for that 63-21 beatdown in 2023, winning and covering the past 3 meetings. That’s also the season where Justin Herbert last failed to cover a divisional game, going 8-0-1 ATS the past 9 AFC West games. Geno Smith will continue to struggle against this defense that excels at getting pressure, and the Chargers only needing to win by a field goal is not asking much.
NFL (1 Unit) LA Rams -6.5 First Half @ Carolina Panthers (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
In my opinion, it’s time to give the Rams their flowers as the best team in football. So matching them up against this fraudulent Carolina squad that has a .500 record through smoke and mirrors should make for another big performance out of LA. The first half is where I think that is most apparent, since Carolina has made a living out of late-game magic. In first halves though the Panthers really struggle, ranked 27th in points allowed and 30th in points scored. That creates a bad matchup for them since this Rams team is 3rd and 4th, respectively, in those categories this season, and Sean McVay’s east coast dominance should shine early in this one.
NFL (1 Unit) New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins -0.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
This one is pretty simple: there’s nobody worse at starting games than the Saints. Not just this season, where New Orleans is 1-10 against the first quarter spread, but that record places them as easily the worst first quarter team since 2020. New Orleans has been outscored 85-19 in opening quarters this season, and now have to travel to a rested Miami squad still clinging to a shred of postseason hope. At home against awful teams is where Tua Tagovailoa shines, and the extra prep time off the bye should get the Dolphins an early lead today.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Daniel Jones Under 239.5 Passing+Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Woody Marks Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Quinshon Judkins Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-110)
1 Unit – Jacoby Brissett Over 262.5 Passing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Jacoby Brissett Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Sean Tucker Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Michael Wilson Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Cade Otton Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Trey McBride Alt Over 7.5 Receptions (+115)
0.5 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Blake Corum Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Rico Dowdle Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+140)
0.75 Unit – Breece Hall Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Travis Etienne Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Bayshul Tuten Over 35.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-110)
0.5 Unit – Kenneth Walker Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Justin Herbert Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Oronde Gadsden Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jaylen Warren Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Kenneth Gainwell Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Courtland Sutton Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – RJ Harvey Over 77.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder -3.5 First Quarter @ Portland Trail Blazers (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OK
The Thunder just keep rolling, and it doesn’t matter where they play the Blazers or what the outcome is, they know how to jump on this team early. On the road in a game they ended up losing, OKC led Portland by 20 after the first quarter. At home in a game they dominated start to finish, the Thunder held a 21-point lead after 12 minutes of play. This Blazers team is not healthy enough to compete with the runs that we’re seeing out of OKC lately, and I expect the most dominant team in the league to leave no doubt early in this one.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Wyoming +21.5 @ Texas Tech (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This Texas Tech squad is good but inconsistent, and I simply can’t be on board with them laying this big of a number today. The Red Raiders flushed the memory of their 30-point loss to Purdue with a 30-point victory of their own against New Orleans, but this might be a trickier spot for them to keep that momentum. Wyoming is a quality team with an incredible statistical advantage in this matchup that I think helps them keep it close.
The Cowboys bring the country’s top three-point percentage defense to Lubbock today, and that could make life difficult for a Tech team that’s overly reliant on the three-ball. Wyoming is also excellent at keeping teams off the free-throw line, so they can negate a friendly home whistle today. The analytics sites project this as more of a 15-point game in favor of Tech, and if that advantage beyond the arc plays out we’ll see a tighter one than expected here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 41-32 (+9.12 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.