Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Philadelphia Eagles (-1) @ Washington Commanders: 4:00 PM CT on FOX
The Commanders have packed it in for the year while the Eagles are looking to clinch the division today, so it’s not likely to be a good day for Washington. Yes, those facts are baked into the spread today, which is why it’s much better in my opinion to tease the Eagles down even though they might roll here.
The Commanders have played Philly tough in recent years, but that’s been with Jayden Daniels healthy and a much better defense. Even the sputtering Eagles offense can take advantage of the league’s 31st-ranked defense by EPA, and with Philly playing incredible defense themselves, they should come out of DC with a division title.
Green Bay Packers/Chicago Bears Under (52.5): 7:20 PM CT on FOX
Micah Parsons might be out for the Packers, but this defense was already pretty solid before he got to Green Bay. This is a situation where typically the rest of the team rallies around the loss of a star player and maxes out the effort to compensate for that missing piece, at least for the next game. So I think we’ll get a high level defensive performance out of the Packers tonight.
It’ll be tough against this Bears offense that is rolling, and always seems to go over their team total. But the other side of the equation is an improving Bears defense shutting down a Packers team missing much more than Parsons. The offensive skill positions are decimated, the o-line is hurting, and I think that really slows the Pack down today. There should also be significant wind for both offenses to deal with, so at an adjusted number like this I think the game stays under.
College Football Playoff (0.75 Unit) Tulane @ Ole Miss -10 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN
Ole Miss might not have their playcaller and offensive mastermind with Lane Kiffin out the door, but this is still the same group of players and I think they’ll be fired up today. I tend to believe that getting abandoned by your coach will cause the players to rally around each other, and the talent on this squad is undeniable.
They’re the same ones who were 6th nationally in first half scoring, and led Tulane 23-3 at halftime of the early season meeting. The Green Wave meanwhile have shown a tendency to get run out in first halves on the road, allowing 17.7 points per game this season which is tied for 90th in the country. Non-power teams do not have a good history in the CFP, and I think this situation sets up perfectly for a motivated Rebels squad to make an early statement.
College Football Playoff (0.75 Unit) Oregon Team Total Over 33.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
Like I said, non-power teams don’t do well in the CFP, and this is the smallest school to ever be involved at this level of football. The Dukes are no pushover, but the talent level is going to overwhelm them eventually in this game. James Madison is actually pretty good at defending the run, so they might slow the Ducks down in that sense, but it only serves to turn Dante Moore loose.
With a healthy group of receivers, Moore and Oregon are extremely dangerous through the air, and Oregon went 5-2 over this total at home on the season. I think Dan Lanning is still stewing over how last season’s CFP unfolded for them and will want to leave no doubt, so they should be able to name their score here and 5 touchdowns isn’t asking much.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Orlando Magic Team Total Over 123.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on KJZZ
Orlando’s defense has been letting them down lately, but the offense is clicking. If they get into another up-tempo or high-scoring game here, they’ll fly over this total. That’s because the Utah defense is hilariously pathetic, like on a historical scale, and would easily be the worst for defensive efficiency if not for Washington.
But the Jazz are dead last for points allowed, and are giving up an incredible 129.1 PPG at home this season, and 12 of their past 15 opponents have cleared this total. Utah is also going to push tempo, and this second game of an elevation road trip for the Magic is probably going to wear out their defensive legs, forcing them to score a lot. They shouldn’t have any trouble with that, and I expect a big number to be hung on this lowly Jazz squad again.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Sacramento Kings Team Total Under 117.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA
I refuse to believe that Thursday’s result in this matchup actually happened, I mean that cannot be real life. The Kings were dead in the water, ready to pack it in after falling flat for most of the game, then suddenly had the most improbable comeback I can remember. Sacramento went nuclear for 26 points in the final 5 minutes of regulation, including 17 points over the final 1:53 to cash their team total over.
That’s one of the worst beats I’ve ever seen, and I won’t be bullied by such an outlier result. I’m coming right back to the under for them, this time at an even better number. This team simply can’t score without freakish things happening like that finish and the ridiculous 40-point first quarter. Lightning doesn’t tend to strike twice, and I trust the original handicap of a team only averaging 111.7 PPG on the year and missing their two best scorers.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas Tech/Duke Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
It’s a shame that there’s an NFL game and a CFP game going on at the same time as this because it’s a fun matchup. I think we see plenty of points, as both offenses are very capable and both defenses might have some cracks in them. Texas Tech has not defended very well at all when they step up in competition, giving up an average of 85.8 PPG in their matchups against Purdue, Illinois, Wake Forest, and Arkansas.
The Blue Devils have a better offense from a metrics standpoint than two of those teams, and can really score inside which has been Tech’s biggest weakness. And a sneaky weakness for Duke might be three-point defense, as Lipscomb showed the other night what high-volume shooting from deep can do to the Blue Devils. That plays right into Tech’s hands as they’re heavily reliant on the three, so I think strength-vs-weakness matchups on both ends of the floor should produce a lot of scoring here.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Arizona Team Total Over 84.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN2
This is an automatic play for me right now on Arizona, especially in the non-conference slate that only has a few games left. The Wildcats can’t be stopped, not against low major teams, mid-majors, or even the top teams in the country, hanging at least 96 in their past 5 games. And while the number is priced in a way that suggests this is a typical Brian Dutcher defense for San Diego State, that’s simply not the case.
The Aztecs have skated by on a schedule of weak offenses, but when they step up in class it gets ugly. They were boat raced by Michigan 94-54, which happens because the Wolverines are just that good, but they also let a down Baylor squad put up 91, both on neutral floors like this game will be. Arizona is going to challenge them inside in a way that SDSU hasn’t seen all season and the Wildcats are just too good at racking up easy buckets, so expect them to clear this total again tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 40-22 (+6.70 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.