Locks
NFL (2 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via BetMGM)
KC Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans (+10): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
What a weird situation for Chiefs players to be in. Most of this roster has never been looking ahead to January and seen time off since they’re always making it to the AFC Championship game. So with the Chiefs eliminated from the playoffs and Patrick Mahomes out, how much effort does this team want to bring to this game?
I would say relatively little since they’re more interested in Cancun reservations than beating the Titans by margin. Kansas City wasn’t winning games by margin with Mahomes healthy and their playoff hopes alive, going 4-12 ATS the past 16 games as a favorite, so I don’t see this version winning on the road by double digits.
Atlanta Falcons/Arizona Cardinals Over (41.5): 3:05 PM CT on FOX
I have no idea how this doesn’t turn into a shootout, and knocking 7 points off the total while moving through several key numbers makes me even more comfortable. Kirk Cousins actually has the Atlanta offense rolling, at least against bad defenses, which is what the Falcons will face today. They should be getting Drake London back for this game which is always a massive boost to their offense, but everyone has been torching the Cardinals defense.
Arizona now sits 29th in defensive success rate allowed, plus 25th in EPA/play against the pass so Cousins should be able to let it fly in this game. But that’s all that Arizona is going to do behind Jacoby Brissett, even though it’s easier to attack the Falcons defense on the ground. The Cardinals have essentially nothing for a run game, and with nothing to lose this season should once again turn Brissett loose. All that passing will create the shootout I’m expecting to see, and clear this adjusted total easily.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions (PK): 3:25 PM CT on CBS
The Lions are in a spot here that puts their backs against the wall, needing this win pretty desperately for their playoff hopes. They’re returning home to Detroit off a loss, and there’s no place I’d rather back them than that. The duo of Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have now won 15 straight games following a loss, going 14-1 ATS in that stretch for good measure.
And last week’s blown opportunity should fuel Detroit here, as Campbell is 11-3 ATS after his team coughs up a 7-plus point lead. The Lions have the exact kind of balanced offense that can attack any of Pittsburgh’s defensive liabilities, so I see them having plenty of success in a bounce back spot. And while the Lions are pretty weak in the secondary, I just don’t see Aaron Rodgers and this offense being able to push the ball downfield. The Steelers and their checkdown offense plays right into Detroit’s hand, so back the Lions to get back in the winning column today.
NFL (1 Unit) Minnesota Vikings/NY Giants First Half Over 20.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
This situation sets up very well for points, and I’m going to count on them coming earlier in the game. When the Giants have either Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston starting, the first halves of their games go wild with a 9-2 over record and average of 27.6 points. Even though the Vikings have a strong defense, they’re still allowing 13.6 first half points in their road games, ranking just 18th in the league. So with Dart willing to throw all over the field, and Minnesota loving to throw deep, I think we see the chunk plays and/or turnovers that create scoring opportunities. The wind is supposed to pick up later in this game though, so look to the first half for a lot of points.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Raiders First Half Team total Under 6 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on CBS
The Raiders were blanked last week by a good Eagles defense, and now they face the best defense in the league for a second straight road game. Typically when a team gets shut out, you want to back them in some way the following week as they have a good history of covering the spread. I just want nothing to do with this Raiders team though, and I’m not willing to ask a terrible team to do something good. Instead I’ll ride their trend this season of going 11-2-1 under their first half team total, and facing the league’s toughest defense that’s highly motivated will probably keep them scoreless for another 2 quarters.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Aaron Jones Over 74.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jaxson Dart Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Theo Johnson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – James Cook Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Baker Mayfield Over 231.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Mike Evans Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Rico Dowdle Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Tyler Shough Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Justin Herbert Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Omarion Hampton Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Omarion Hampton Alt Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (+230)
0.25 Unit – Omarion Hampton Alt Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (+245)
1 Unit – Darren Waller Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Darren Waller Alt Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (+140)
0.25 Unit – Darren Waller Alt Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (+245)
0.25 Unit – Darren Waller Alt Over 3.5 Receptions (+155)
0.75 Unit – Jamarr Chase Over 87.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Jacoby Brissett Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Drake London Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)
0.5 Unit – Bijan Robinson Over 132.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Courtland Sutton Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Jakobi Meyers Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jahmir Gibbs Over 117.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Kenneth Gainwell Over 62.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – AmonRa St Brown Over 7.5 Receptions (+105)
0.25 Unit – Houston Defense/Special Teams Anytime TD (+425)
0.5 Unit – Nico Collins Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Keaton Mitchell Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Derrick Henry Over 19.5 Rush Attempts (-110)
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Alabama Team Total Over 101.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on SECN+
This is going to be an absolute track meet, as two of the fastest-paced teams get together in a neutral site game. Alabama is 7th and Kennesaw State is 10th in adjusted tempo this season, with both just wanting to run all game. The Tide are going to love it, and as we saw in their last game, a team that also plays their style leads to a ton of Bama points as they dropped 104 on South Florida.
That made for the fourth game this season where they’ve gone over this number, and I see the fifth here. An underrated element of this is that Kennesaw can’t keep their hands off other teams, committing the most fouls per game. If Alabama is going to add a lot of easy points from the stripe, then the country’s second-rated offense will do a ton of damage today on their way over this number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 41-23 (+9.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.