Locks
NFL (1 Unit) Baltimore Ravens/Green Bay Packers First Half Under 19.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Peacock
These are two teams that tend to start very slowly, and now they’re both trotting out backup quarterbacks. The Packers are just 5-10 over their first half team total this season, and as a result the first halves of their games are 11-4 to the under. That’s tied for the best under mark in the league, and includes going 7-0 to the under in first halves of home games.
If that sounds rough, it’s nothing compared to the Ravens who are 2-13 over their first half team total this season. So if neither team is going to score well early in this game, I just don’t see where the first half points are coming from. Not from a pair of backup QB’s who won’t be trusted to sling it all over the field, and are probably more effective as runners in their offenses anyway. This feels like a very ugly and slow start, with both teams focusing on the ground game, and should stay under even this lower total.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Orlando Magic Team Total Over 115.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Altitude
This is a preposterously low number considering the situation. It’s kind of preposterous just from a basic math standpoint, as the Magic are averaging 116.8 points per game this season, but the bounce back spot here seals it for me. Orlando had a brutal travel schedule leading up to this game, with a 4-game road trip out west followed by a home game the day after Christmas.
So it’s no wonder they fell flat against Charlotte last night, and I see them bouncing back here, especially with some revenge as extra motivation. The Magic were run out by the Nuggets on the first leg of that road trip, but still scored 115 points against this porous Denver defense. The Nuggets are too banged up to defend much of anything, and Orlando may get reinforcements today as several key players are game-time decisions. Denver is going to score though, they’re too good offensively, so they should either push or drag the Magic up over this team total.
NBA (0.75 Unit) New York Knicks Team Total Over 124.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV
It has not been a December to remember for Atlanta, as this defense has completely cratered. The past 9 games have seen the Hawks give up 130.2 points per game, with opponents going 7-2 over this team total. I don’t quite understand it from a schematic standpoint since the Hawks have so many plus defenders on the roster, but right now they just can’t stop a parked car.
The Knicks are an excellent offense that can easily take advantage of this defensive collapse, as they’re second in the league for offensive efficiency and one of the better shooting teams. With the Hawks driving an up-tempo game, there should be plenty of possessions available for New York to ring up another big number on this struggling defense.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 30-35 (-2.74 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.