NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Denver Nuggets Over 237.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I’m still stinging from Wednesday’s Wolves game falling just short of the total, but that won’t deter me here. I’m still a believer in road overs for the Timberwolves as a general principle, as their over record and plus/minus to the total is still best in the NBA for road teams by a wide margin. Tonight should add another one given the matchup, as Minnesota’s style and 2nd-most road points allowed will create plenty of scoring.
While they’re only 10th in overall scoring, the Nuggets have one of the most effective offenses in the league. Denver’s shooting percentage and effective field goal rate are both second in the league, but they don’t often get maximized due to just an average pace. The Wolves are guaranteed to speed up just about any game, and those extra possessions for such a dangerous offense should lead to a lot of points. There’s no sense in overthinking this one, so I’m grabbing the over for what should be a shootout.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics -3.5 First Quarter (-110): 6:30 PM CT on NBCS-Boston
I have to imagine the Celtics are not in a great mood after coughing up a late lead to Miami on Wednesday night. I also have to imagine that they’re looking to exact some revenge on Indiana for creating one of the few bumps in their 2-month hot streak. That should create the perfect opportunity for the Celtics to jump on another opponent early here, especially given Indiana’s track record early in games.
Boston has owned the Pacers to start all three meetings this season – even that odd blowout loss – leading after one quarter in every game by an average 6.3 point margin. That’s fully in character for a Boston team that leads the NBA in 1st quarter points allowed, and is 6th in average margin. Indiana is much further down the list of all 1st quarter stats, and to say they’ve had trouble starting games recently is a major understatement. Their past 5 games have seen them trail at the quarter break by 28, 14, 20, 21, and 3 points. Given the angles and motivation here, I see the Celtics starting strong again and the Pacers offering little resistance.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 667-542 ATS (+78.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.