NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors -3.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ABC
I’ve heard from professional handicappers who have Boston as their top power-rated team, like them to win the series, yet refuse to back them tonight. That should be a sign of just how dominant the Warriors are in this kind of situation, both historically and in this postseason.
Golden State has won Game 1 in 21 of their past 23 postseason series. And while they’re just 13-10 ATS in those games, a lot of the spreads have been fairly outsized numbers. Against a single-digit spread in home Game 1’s, the Warriors are an outstanding 9-2 ATS as a favorite. They’ve also won each of the opening games in this postseason, and the two played in San Francisco haven’t even been close.
The Warriors are just tough to prepare for, and even though Boston has had some time off, they’ve still been through consecutive 7-game series. Teams coming off a 7-game series are 32-51 straight up in the ensuing Game 1, and the Celtics furthered that trend last round. I see the Warriors as the deeper and better-rested team here, and they should cruise to another Game 1 win and cover.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Jordan Poole Over 15.5 Points (-110)
It’s June, time for a Poole party. Backing Jordan Poole in early games has been extremely profitable, as the third Splash Brother is scoring at an amazing clip to start each series in these playoffs. He led the Warriors in scoring for Game 1 against both the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies, then dropped 19 against the Dallas Mavericks to open that series. With Boston gearing up to slow the OG Splash Brothers, look for the newest addition to continue his impressive starts.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Andrew Wiggins Over 22.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
It’s really about the matchup here for me, as Wiggins has an opportunity to re-create his key role from the Dallas series. Boston will be switching like crazy on the perimeter against Golden State’s excellent passing, leaving the back door open for Wiggins to cut to the rim. The Celtics will have to go small for that, leaving their back line exposed just like Dallas did. Wiggins capitalized against the Mavs, averaging 25.8 per game for this prop. The opportunity should be there again, and I see Wiggins continuing to elevate his game as he has all postseason.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves/Colorado Rockies Over 11.5 (-110): 7:40 PM CT on MLB Network
This is a pretty standard total for Coors Field, and given the matchups and situation, I see tonight’s game going over fairly easily. It’s really all about how these home games have started playing out for Colorado, going 10-5 over tonight’s total in the past 15 games at Coors. Even the light-hitting Miami Marlins got in on the fun, putting up 26 runs themselves across yesterday’s doubleheader. And that’s a key point here as the Rockies bullpen will have basically nothing left for today.
That means Austin Gomber will need to extend his start today and give more at-bats to an Atlanta lineup, who can take advantage. The Braves are one of the best teams in baseball against left-handers like Gomber, ranking top-5 in OPS and ISO power numbers. Atlanta’s starter, Ian Anderson, has conversely struggled against right-handed bats, which Colorado has plenty of. I’m seeing both teams as very capable of exploiting the opposing pitching and keeping Coors Field true to its high-scoring nature in a slugfest tonight.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 745-618 ATS (+79.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.