MLB (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Braves/Colorado Rockies Over 11.5 (-110): 8:10 PM CT on MLB Network
Baseball keeps showing me things I’ve never seen before, like a 0-0 tie going into extra innings at Coors Field last night. A low-scoring night was somewhat predictable, with the Braves sending out their ace and Colorado’s starter having the best home ERA on the staff. But I see a return to more normal Coors Field scoring tonight, with a matchup that isn’t likely to turn into a pitcher’s duel.
Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has a 6.25 ERA in home games, and Braves hitters have a career .338 average and 1.043 OPS against him. I’ve mentioned before how the Braves are crushing left-handed pitching, especially in some of the more advanced power metrics, and Freeland should be the next easy victim.
The Rockies are also due to bounce back offensively off last night’s one-run output. Whenever the Rockies have been held to less than 5 runs at Coors this season, they produce 6.8 runs on average in their next home game. Anything close to that production should be gravy here, as the potent Atlanta offense pounds away at Freeland and does most of the work to get this over the total.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 750-621 ATS (+80.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.