MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+130)
Milwaukee Brewers (-160) @ Washington Nationals: 3:05 PM CT on MASN2
Seven straight losses for Milwaukee is certainly troubling, but nothing bounces a team back quite like getting to face Patrick Corbin. The Nationals lefty with his 6.71 ERA and 1.76 WHIP is a pitcher I will fade until the end of time. He’s also allowed a .352 average and .880 OPS to left-handed hitters, which is where Milwaukee gets most of its power at the plate.
It’s not often you can get this cheap of a price to fade Corbin either, which is a product of that losing streak for the Brewers. But digging into those games shows that they’ve run into the buzz saw of a rejuvenated Phillies team, plus the underrated excellence of the Padres. Washington is the NL East bottom feeder for a reason, Milwaukee has a starter in Eric Lauer with success against them, and that should allow the Brew Crew to break the streak.
Toronto Blue Jays (-240) @ Detroit Tigers: 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
Another young starter is going for Detroit today, and might be in trouble against this powerful and hot Toronto lineup. Tigers righty Beau Brieske has had some moments of success this season, but his biggest struggles have come against right-handed hitters. That’s what dominates the Blue Jays lineup, which continued its hot streak yesterday with a 10-run outburst. They should be able to continue piling up the runs given Brieske has a .957 OPS allowed to right-handed bats this season.
If the Jays take care of business at the plate, then Kevin Gausman should take care of business on the mound. For whatever reason, the road has been a friend to the Toronto righty, where his ERA of 1.91 is almost half of what it is at home. That should continue against a Tigers team that is awful against righties, ranking 29th in average and 30th in both OPS and runs scored. This should be an easy win for the Blue Jays to close this parlay.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/Atlanta Braves Over 9 (-110): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
It’s not often I’m interested in an over bet when the light-hitting Pirates are involved. But when Braves starter Charlie Morton is involved, I’m far less concerned about who the opponent is. Morton just manages to find his way into slugfests, with his starts going 7-2-2 over this total with those games averaging 11.1 runs. There’s some power lurking in the Pittsburgh lineup, so Morton and his 6.86 ERA the past four starts might be the perfect pitcher to bring it out.
But I see Atlanta’s power being on display in this one against Pirates righty Zach Thompson. He’s had a few strong starts the past month, but he hasn’t had to face a lineup like Atlanta can put out there. Right-handed power all throughout the Braves lineup should only serve to worsen Thompson’s issues against that side of the plate where he’s allowing an .855 OPS. It’s also hot and humid in Atlanta with a breeze blowing out, creating excellent conditions for another high-scoring game here.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 763-631 ATS (+80.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.