Locks
MLB (1 Unit) LA Dodgers -1.5 @ Cincinnati Reds (+105): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Ohio
If you believe the Dodgers are going to win this game, then it doesn’t make sense to lay -160 with them when you can get a plus-juice return instead. You could certainly say Los Angeles is having a down month by their standards, going 8-9 straight up since the calendar flipped to June. But all 8 of those wins have been by two-plus runs, as have 37 of their 41 wins in total. They’re also 5-0 to the run line against Cincinnati, who definitely has a flair for losing big.
And the Dodgers are sending Tyler Anderson back to the mound today, one of the most surprising bright spots of their season. The lefty has not taken a loss all year, and LA is 9-3 in his starts with all of those wins by multiple runs. While Luis Castillo has shown some flashes of his old self for the Reds, he’s up against a Dodger lineup that’s been excellent against right-handed pitching. That should bring a Dodgers win in this one, and since those trend heavily to comfortable wins, I’ll look for the plus-money return here.
MLB (0.75 Unit) SF Giants/Atlanta Braves Over 8.5 (-110): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports South
Most teams are going to have a tough time scoring any runs against Carlos Rodón, whose starts are just 4-9 over this total on the season. But the Atlanta Braves aren’t most teams. They’re the team that hits left-handed pitchers like Rodon the hardest in baseball, ranking 1st in slugging percentage, ISO power, and hard contact percentage. Rodon has looked human against teams that are top-10 in those categories, so Atlanta should be able to get to him to some degree.
They’ll need it because Charlie Morton is really struggling. Before a strange game in his last outing, Morton had compiled a 7.08 ERA over his previous 4 starts. And he’s been a good over bet this season in general, with his starts going 10-3 over this total. Atlanta also used up a lot of bullpen help in last night’s 22-run game, so that could mean more innings for Morton tonight. If Morton has a typical performance, I see Atlanta contributing enough to get this over the total.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): SF Giants Moneyline (+110)
This is just good value for San Francisco with their ace on the mound. Atlanta is certainly a good team, and extremely good against lefties as I said above. But they’ve come back to earth after the 14-game winning streak that was built on facing a lot of bad teams. That’s certainly inflated their value to some extent, even against a Giants team that’s easily the best they’ve seen in a month. With Morton’s struggles, I would make San Fran the favorite here, so I’ll back them to get the win.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 780-648 ATS (+81.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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