Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) KC Royals @ Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-125; Odds via BetMGM): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North
If the past two days are any indication, the Twins offense appears to be back on track at least a little bit. Of course you have to consider the opponent, but that awful Royals pitching staff is who they’ll face again tonight and I’m expecting them to keep rolling.
It’s really just a matter of how the Twins have handled their business against the Central cellar dwellers, going 8-1 on the run line against them. Minnesota also has a plus-3.1 average margin in those games and will face a rookie starter tonight in Alec Marsh, so I like them to roll here.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Royals/Twins Over 8.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars)
The meetings between these teams at Target Field have averaged 10.5 runs including the past two days where the Twins have put up 8 and 9 runs. I am expecting that offensive output to continue against Marsh as he’s a righty which puts the Twins in their better split.
But you also have to expect Pablo Lopez to give up runs at home where he has a 5.94 ERA, and has seen his starts average 11.9 runs. That includes a home start against these Royals where he allowed 6 runs, so I’m expecting contributions from both squads and a big wind blowing out to help in getting this over the total.
MLB (1 Unit) Miami Marlins Team Total Over 4.5 (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports FL
There is some question as to who will get the start for St Louis today, but it appears the choice is between Matthew Liberatore and Steven Matz. Either way, I’m seeing the Marlins pile up baserunners and scoring chances against two left-handed options from the Cardinals. This Miami team has been elite all season against lefties, leading MLB in batting average against them and ranking top-5 in OPS and weighted on base average.
The Marlins have also been pretty hot at the plate lately since getting their full lineup back healthy. Liberatore with his 9.00 road ERA would likely get knocked around, as would Matz with his 7.09 road ERA, .360 on-base average allowed, and .400 career average and 1.282 OPS allowed to the Marlins lineup. The Fish are undervalued in general, and their underrated lineup should rake against either lefty option tonight.
MLB (1 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Chicago White Sox Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI
These are two suspect pitchers in tough situational splits that I think helps create a slugfest here. With Jose Berrios on the road you can usually expect a bit of a blowup, especially with some of those road demons showing up in his last road start. I think we’re also seeing Bad Berrios creep back in, with a 6.19 ERA his past 3 starts looking like a warning sign.
Those issues might pop back up in a big way against a Chicago lineup that’s hit him well historically, especially with the Southsiders looking much better at the plate lately. But they’ll need it as usual with Lance Lynn starting again, the owner of a 7.22 ERA at home and 7.71 ERA across his past 6 starts overall. Those struggles against a talented Jays lineup should make for a high-scoring affair tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network
I have a hard time deciding whether Kodai Senga is legit for the Mets. His flashes of brilliance need to be considered, but I’ve ridden this Diamondbacks team so much that I can’t go away from them here. If Senga is going to struggle it’ll be on the road where his ERA is almost double what it is at home. With Arizona also getting Corbin Carroll back in the lineup yesterday their offense is back to normal, which is top-5 against right-handed pitching.
And New York’s struggles against lefties could show back up here against Tommy Henry who’s been much better at home, and the Snakes have won 6 straight with him on the mound. This is a fairly cheap price to back a division leader at home, and I think the underrated D’backs grab another win here.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Wings Team Total Over 80.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
The Aces are such a tough team to bet against, so I’m not going directly at them but still expecting Dallas to score fairly easily tonight. The Wings play at the league’s fastest tempo, which Vegas should have no problem going along with. But the Aces know there are really only two teams that can give them trouble in this league, and they crushed both over the past week. They tend to allow other relatively decent squads to hang around, evidenced by them allowing 82.4 PPG their past 5 games. Even if it’s in garbage time of a blowout, I like the Wings to reach a number that’s well below their season average of 84.3 PPG.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Wings/Aces Over 175.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM)
Whether the Aces let Dallas hang around or this game turns into a blowout, it should be another track meet. The outstanding efficiency and scoring punch of Vegas’ offense will benefit from the fast tempo created by Dallas here. What used to be the best scoring defense in the league has shown cracks in those 5 games I mentioned, which also happen to have averaged 180 total points. I don’t see any change here against an up-tempo team so I have to look to the over again.
Degenerates
PGA Tour John Deere Classic (Thu-Sun on Golf Channel and CBS)
We are off to Illinois for the John Deere Classic!
Be prepared for the victor this weekend to go low,low, low! Many elite players have skipped this event, so the pool of players contains names we don’t usually see at the top of a list. But with birdies being plentiful and hazards being limited, we can look to capitalize on some longer odds!
Russell Henley +1600
Emiliano Grillo +3200
Eric Cole +3200
Taylor Moore +3600
Tiny Nick is 1381-1220 ATS (+68.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.