Locks
MLB (1 Unit) KC Royals @ Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 12:40 PM CT on Bally Sports GL
This amount of juice is just too attractive to not back Cleveland in what should be another lopsided game. With their best pitcher in Shane Bieber taking the mound, I would’ve expected the Guardians to be laying a heftier price on the run line against this putrid Royals team.
Bieber has been fairly dominant at home this season, posting a 3.02 ERA, but having subpar overall results because of Cleveland’s early-season struggles. But the Guardians have reeled off a 13-6 run where 9 of those wins have been by double digits, so Bieber should get better support today.
The Royals meanwhile are fully cratering, having lost all 6 games of this current road trip by multiple runs and probably looking forward to time off for the All-Star break. KC is now the worst team on the run line overall, on the road, and after a loss. Their awful pitching should get knocked around again while Bieber holds them down for a comfortable win.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics/Connecticut Sun Over 160.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN
There’s good news for the Mystics here as star forward Elena Delle Donne is expected to play after recovering from an ankle injury. That really helps their offense that has been picking up steam lately, averaging 90.8 PPG the past 5 games. That’s a significant departure from a style that was defensive-oriented early in the year, but should continue here. You just have to score with Connecticut to compete, especially at Mohegan Sun where they average 86.3 PPG. The high-flying Sun and a new-look Washington team should put up plenty on what’s become a low total in the WNBA.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/Minnesota Lynx 1st Half Over 86.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Recent strong play by the Lynx should be taken with many grains of salt, as their 5 straight wins have all come against the bottom 3 teams in the standings. Now they get the best team in the league, and the angry version at that. The Aces should be motivated to start strong here after their second loss of the season on Friday, and I think that makes for plenty of early points.
After Vegas lost their first game this season, the first half of their next game saw 95 points. Additionally, their games against the Lynx have seen first halves of 87 and 95 points, but lower-scoring second halves. The Lynx have shown a lot more offensive pop lately and road defensive issues for Vegas haven’t gone away, so look for this one to start fast.
WNBA (1 Unit) Atlanta Dream/Chicago Sky Under 169.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Marquee
Atlanta games are always going to see high totals thanks to an offense scoring the 3rd-most points and a defense allowing the most points. But Chicago is basically the opposite, as they score the 2nd-fewest points per game while ranking 5th in points allowed. The Sky offense has also really struggled lately, scoring just 74.7 PPG the past 7 games.
And despite Atlanta’s defensive woes, they do seem to know how to hold Chicago in check. The two meetings this season have seen Chicago shoot very poorly while scoring only 65 and 68 points. Not surprisingly, those games went well under this total and cashed their respective unders with ease. That’s enough for me to believe we’ll see more of the same tonight in a matchup where Atlanta just seems to have this Sky team figured out.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Dream ML (+105; Odds via Caesars)
The Dream offense had no trouble in either previous game, running Chicago out by 14 and 18 point margins. Atlanta is also a really strong road team, going 6-3 both ATS and straight up this season. All signs point to this being a bad matchup for Chicago, so I’ll take the short plus-money price and back Atlanta again tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1389-1229 ATS (+67.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.