NBA – Phoenix Suns +4.5 (-110) @ Milwaukee Bucks: 7:00 PM CT on ABC
This is a tough one as the spot and history are saying the Milwaukee Bucks will take this Game 3 at home. But I can’t ignore how the Phoenix Suns have looked all year, throughout the playoffs, and to start this series.
The “Suns-in-4” guy might want to temper his expectations, but I think the Suns at least stay competitive in this game due to a big coaching mismatch and the play of Phoenix’s backcourt. Let’s not forget this squad was the best ATS team in the NBA this season, went a ridiculous 10-3 ATS as a road underdog, and are now 30-14 straight up on the road including playoffs.
Smart money started buying Phoenix in this game as soon as the number reached +4.5 and that’s where I like it best. So if you have to buy it to there, I think getting well over a full possession of points is worth the extra juice. There shouldn’t be a 9-point move from the Game 2 line just because they’re in Milwaukee, not after two double-digit wins and covers by Phoenix plus their excellence on the road, so I’ll take the points with the Suns.
NBA – Phoenix Suns/Milwaukee Bucks Over 221.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ABC
I guess if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.
The first two games of this series have cleared their totals and this number with only a minor amount of sweat. Over-killing events continue to be defied – particularly bad second quarters and mediocre overall shooting – so it feels like we’ve yet to see the full offensive potential of these teams.
That’s particularly true of the Bucks, who haven’t gotten any consistency from Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday, but being at home should bring better scoring performances from them and the rest of the supporting cast. The Suns found the range from downtown in Game 2 and should be able to continue scoring from outside against the 24th-ranked 3-point defense.
Milwaukee is a much better team to the over in home games, and Phoenix has a positive ROI mark to the over as a road team, so I’ll trust that this series continues its trend with improved output from the Bucks at home.
Bonus Bet: The first two games of this series saw the first halves stay under the total due to those bad second quarters. While I wouldn’t recommend a first half under play, I would recommend keeping an eye on the live market, 2nd half total, and 3rd quarter total for undervalued numbers.
The two third quarters have seen 62 and 65 points, leading to 117 and 125 point second halves, so keep those numbers in mind if you’re betting in-play. Some books also allow bets on individual quarter totals pre-game, which I’m seeing at around 56.5 points for the 3rd tonight, and with how these teams have come out of halftime so far I would definitely take that over.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 326-224 ATS (+87.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.