Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) San Diego Padres/Philadelphia Phillies Game 2 Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on NBCS-PHI
Last night’s game between these squads getting over the 9.5 total has caused today’s number to be adjusted upward a little. But I see this pitching matchup being far more favorable to runs than yesterday, so the adjustment is not enough here.
The Padres in particular are sending out an even more vulnerable starter in Ryan Weathers, who saw all three of his June starts last less than 3 innings. Weathers has a 9.00 ERA over his past 6 outings, and allowed opposing teams to bat .500 in those June starts.
So the Phillies should bounce back from a fairly disappointing night on offense, while the Padres keep it rolling against another lefty starter. Ranger Suarez continues to be a fade candidate for me as regression has hit him hard the past two starts. Suarez owns a 5.92 ERA at home and the Padres are cooking against lefties, so that will be a big factor in getting this game over the total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees/Colorado Rockies Over 11.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on SportsNetRM
If the Yankees can’t get the bats going today, then their offense without Aaron Judge should just be written off entirely. I know they have a really tough time against right-handed pitching, but they’re facing an absolute meatball pitcher in Connor Seabold today. The Rockies righty has piled up a 12.96 ERA his past 4 starts, with even the meek Tigers tagging him for 8 runs.
But the Yankees don’t need to do all the work here in a game that sets up favorably for the Colorado offense as well. Clarke Schmidt is still having issues on the road with a 5.18 ERA, and now has to pitch in the most hitter-friendly park around. The Rockies got a big boost with the return of Kris Bryant and CJ Cron to the lineup, proving it with 7 runs last night. If they can keep that up in their preferred split against a righty, this game should get over a low total by Coors Field standards.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1398-1232 ATS (+69.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.