No locks today.
MLB – San Diego Padres/Washington Nationals Over 9.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN
These two teams have all the offensive talent and firepower you could ask for, but have both been inconsistent in scoring runs this season, unless they’re facing each other.
We just saw this matchup in a four-game series last week where the games averaged 15 runs and easily cleared this total every night. Although they didn’t face each other, both Chris Paddack and Erick Fedde had starts in that series where they got rocked, and I see more of the same tonight.
Paddack really struggles against right-handed bats which the Washington Nationals have plenty of, with a .322 batting average and .912 OPS against on the season. As hot and cold as the San Diego Padres can be at the plate, they should continue their success against Fedde who struggles against their left-handed bats.
It’s a hot night in D.C. with the wind blowing straight out, oddsmakers seem to be forgetting these teams just had a slugfest last week, so I’m capitalizing on that and some bad pitching in this one.
MLB – Cleveland Indians Team Total Under 3.5 (-110): 8:40 PM CT on NBC Sports-CA
Call me gun shy but unders have been tough to come by for me as of late, so I’m going to keep this one in the degenerate section today even though I like it.
Oakland A’s starter Chris Bassitt has been an excellent pitcher to back this season, and tonight he faces the often light-hitting Cleveland Indians. While the Indians have been tough to predict this season Bassitt has not, especially at home over the past several months. He has allowed this many runs just four times in his 19 starts overall this season, with six straight home starts of allowing two runs or less, and an excellent on-base average of just .197 at Oakland Coliseum.
The Indians come into this game with a team batting average and OPS that are both several points lower on the road. In the first game back after the break, I see them struggling against the Bassitt Hound tonight.
Bonus Bet: Oakland A’s Run Line -1.5 (-105):
When Bassitt pitches the A’s win, period, with a 14-3 record straight up in his past 17 starts. But tonight’s moneyline has gotten far too high so I’m looking to the -1.5 runs at almost even juice. The past 4 home starts for Bassitt have seen the A’s cover the run line, and their last 8 wins behind him have been by two-plus runs. With the Indians starting Eli Morgan with his 8.44 ERA and 1.025 OPS allowed, even the inconsistent A’s offense should be able to produce and get a comfortable win behind the excellence of Bassitt.
Tiny Nick is 327-227 ATS (+85.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.