Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Atlanta Braves Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:35 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
If not for the presence of name-brand starter Dylan Cease, this total would be in the double digits. All the conditions are right for both teams to have good days at the plate, especially with the White Sox facing a lefty starter. That’s their vastly preferred split, and Kolby Allard is not a pitcher I have any fear of. Chicago bounced back yesterday against the best pitcher Atlanta has to offer, so they should keep the bats rolling against a sub-par lefty.
The question then becomes what the Braves can do against Cease, and I think it’s more than most people would expect. The Chicago righty just hasn’t been that sharp since early in the season, and has several bad blowup games on the road against suspect teams. There’s no offense more potent than Atlanta’s, especially at home where they score 5.8 runs per game. With warm weather and the wind blowing out at Truist Park today, expect the excellent hitters in both lineups to shine.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers/Cincinnati Reds First 5 Innings Under 6 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 12:40 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
Apparently the Brewers have the formula to quiet the once-formidable Cincinnati lineup. This is getting a little ridiculous for the Reds who have not scored in 3 straight games, all against Milwaukee.
The Reds have only managed 2 runs per game the past 7 against the Brewers, so it seems to be both a cold streak and something about the opponent. I have to bet on that to continue until proven otherwise, especially at numbers like this one. You don’t usually see this high of an F5 total outside of Coors Field, and I don’t think it’s justified given the results we’ve been seeing out of the Reds.
It’s not like I’m terribly scared of the Milwaukee offense either, which is bottom-5 in road games and has only managed 5 total runs these past 3 games. The starting pitchers today are quietly solid, especially Adrian Houser in day games, so I have to expect another slow start between these clubs.
NBA Summer League (0.25 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/NO Pelicans Over 186.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on NBATV
The Sixers have been a massive cash cow to the over in Summer League, and I don’t see why they would stop now. This consolation bracket game is meaningless and both teams will likely treat this like the exhibition game it is. That style was on display yesterday in the other consolation games that averaged 184 points, so I’m treating that number as a floor.
That means even less defense out of Philly, who has allowed 103.3 PPG in their 4 Summer League games. The Pelicans have been much better defensively, but notably got to 190 points in their only other game against an up-tempo team. With very little to play for in this game I’m expecting both defenses to take it easy and get this game over the total.
NBA Summer League (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Dallas Mavericks Over 182.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on NBATV
This is a strangely low total, especially since I’m still considering that 184-point average from yesterday as a benchmark. These have been two of the higher-scoring teams in all of Summer League, especially after their respective first games when offenses started to click. The Hawks have averaged 193.3 PPG in their past 3 games, while the Mavericks have put up 203.7 in the same stretch. They’re a combined 6-0 over this total in those games, and once again with nothing to play for in this consolation game I’m expecting plenty of scoring.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1399-1233 ATS (+70.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.