No locks today. Locks will return when matchups improve, and baseball stops having more variance than a roulette wheel.
MLB Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees -1.5 (+110): 6:05 PM CT on ESPN+
Normally I would look at this game, see Domingo Germán starting for the Yankees, and get scared off. But tonight, I think the matchup lends itself to a strong performance from New York in a bounce-back spot, where they can take advantage of a wounded Mariners team.
Germán managed to get things somewhat under control in his last start. Tonight he’ll have the benefit of several Seattle stars dealing with injury, including their two most dangerous bats in Julio Rodriguez and Ty France. Without them in the lineup, Seattle’s struggles against right-handed pitching won’t get any better, giving German a chance to look decent.
As for the Yankees, they get to face a lefty in Marco Gonzales, and no other team comes anywhere close to their power numbers against lefties. New York also has the best margin of victory off a loss, and they should be motivated here after yesterday’s late collapse. That all spells Yankee blowout to me, and this plus-juice price has me jumping in.
MLB Houston Astros Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
This is pretty much all about Nathan Eovaldi and his monstrous numbers against the Astros. The Red Sox righty owns a career .451 average and 1.652 OPS against the current Houston lineup, which is beyond ridiculous. A lot of that comes from his previous meeting with them this season, where he gave up 9 runs in less than 2 innings.
That’s not likely to repeat here, but Eovaldi had a rough July, and Houston is top-5 in power metrics against righties, so the ingredients are there. And a bottom-tier Boston bullpen that’s allowed the 4th-most runs in baseball won’t offer much relief. This is just a bad Red Sox pitching staff right now, and one of the best teams in baseball should victimize it all game long.
Tiny Nick is 819-690 ATS (+73 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.