Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/Miami Marlins Over 7.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports FL
Low totals are certainly the norm in Miami’s pitcher-friendly park, and especially when one of the starters is the defending Cy Young winner. But this season hasn’t gone that well for Sandy Alcantara, posting a 4.48 ERA at home compared to 1.64 last season. He’s also been hit hard by Philadelphia in his career for a .314 average and .818 OPS, including two starts this season where he’s posted an 8.44 ERA and .375 batting average allowed.
So I think the Phillies can get to Alcantara tonight at least to some degree, while the Marlins do their usual thing against lefties. Miami has the best batting average and third-best OPS and weighted on-base average against left-handed pitching, which they’ll see tonight in Ranger Suarez. I’ve been eager to fade Suarez at every opportunity as his regression continues, and a team this good against lefties should knock him around again. This is just too low of a number, and both teams should help in getting this game to the over.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Reds +0.5 First 5 Innings @ Chicago Cubs (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on Marquee
I mentioned yesterday how the Reds were looking to stay undefeated against Chicago on the first five innings moneyline. Well they did, moving to a perfect 6-0, yet today the number moves against them and presents an even more advantageous betting opportunity.
Getting a flat price on Cincinnati at plus half a run provides a nice return and good insurance, so I’m jumping in. I would not be surprised at all if the Reds just win the first five innings again to keep the streak perfect, but I’ll take the added cushion. I see them getting to Justin Steele here who might be getting Cy Young buzz, but it’s more due to a lack of options in the National League.
The Reds have given Steele trouble in their limited action against him, posting a cumulative .529 average and 1.306 OPS. They jumped all over him in the only other meeting this season and that was before Cincy got rolling, so I have to keep riding this undefeated streak in their current form.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Speaking of perfect streaks, I’ll ride another one here on this game getting over a fairly low number. It’s certainly low by these teams’ standards, as last night’s 11-run game made them 6-0 over this total when they play this season with 12.7 runs on average. If the Reds can put up the kind of offense that they have in the past against Justin Steele, then the equally hot Chicago bats will help push this one over.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Texas Rangers Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
Assuming the White Sox don’t blow it all up and ship out some of their best hitters at this afternoon’s deadline, I like the chances of their offense producing tonight. They’re always dangerous against left-handed pitching, and that’s what they’ll see tonight with Andrew Heaney starting for Texas. The Ranger lefty has experience against that lineup, getting hit for a .286 average and .865 OPS in his career. Heaney has also had several blow-up starts recently, and has a 4.97 ERA at home.
But Chicago better hope they can put up runs because their thinned-out pitching staff could be in trouble today. After already trading several arms, they’ll start Jesse Scholtens tonight and I think Texas jumps on him. He has a lot of trouble with right-handed hitters, which makes up the best and most powerful bats in the Texas lineup. This Rangers team is the highest-scoring in MLB with the best over record at home for a reason, and I think they log another tonight.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx/Connecticut Sun Over 162.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
This rematch from Sunday has had the total adjusted upward slightly after they combined for 170 points, but not enough in my opinion. They Lynx shot extremely well in that game, powering them to a big upset win, but the key for me is how poorly Connecticut shot. The Sun were just 38.9% from the floor and 17.6% from deep, far below their season averages and what they put up against the Lynx in the other meetings this year.
But Connecticut still put up 83 points in the loss, and I think tonight they get back to their normal levels of offense. If any team will let them it’s Minnesota, with the league’s second-most porous defense that allowed the Sun to put 89 on them in both previous meetings. But the Lynx have turned it on offensively lately even without Napheesa Collier, averaging 88.3 PPG the past 4 games. Keeping that up while the Sun return to form will send this one over the total again.
WNBA (1 Unit) Atlanta Dream @ Las Vegas Aces -8.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT Bally Sports SE
If books are going to keep hanging first half numbers like this for Las Vegas, I’m going to have to keep jumping on them. Odds makers just can’t adjust the first half weighting enough to account for how the Aces are playing, and I think they jump all over another outmatched opponent tonight. Their revenge tour after losing their second game of the year rolls on, pummeling the past 7 opponents early in games.
Las Vegas is 6-1 against this first half number since that loss in Dallas, averaging a 15.1 point halftime lead. Atlanta does not have the defense necessary to slow down the Aces, who are looking to jump on teams early with more starter minutes due to a lack of depth without Candace Parker available. Vegas led by 15 in the first meeting in Atlanta, and should be rolling by double digits at half again tonight.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) NY Liberty -5 First Half @ LA Sparks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBATV
On to another team that tends to dominate first halves, as the Liberty are second only to Las Vegas with a plus-13.8 NET rating before halftime. Compare that to the Sparks who have a minus-6.9 first half NET rating and the Liberty look like they’re in a great spot numerically speaking.
They proved it in the first game of this split doubleheader, jumping out to a 21-2 lead and holding a 16-point edge at half on Sunday. It was the barrage of 3-pointers from New York that so often buries opponents, and I don’t see the Sparks holding up defensively tonight either. The only thing that could slow the Liberty down here is a case of the LA flu, but absent that I’m seeing them race to another strong start.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) NY Liberty First Half Team Total Over 45 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
In the interest of avoiding laying a big full-game number with the Liberty, who tend to let up in the second half, I’ll split the rest of a unit on them continuing to score at will early. In their past 10 games, New York is 7-3 over this isolated total while averaging 48.7 points. With 51 at halftime of Sunday’s game, even mild regression towards the mean should keep them above this number with ease.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1430-1257 ATS (+75.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.