Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Houston Astros Team Total Over 5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 6:15 PM CT on FOX
Watch out for the Astros, they seem to be back and building momentum towards the postseason. Getting the lineup healthy has done wonders, as Houston is averaging 5.9 runs per game over their past 15 games. They’re absolutely crushing left-handed pitching too, which they’ll see again tonight from Angels starter Tyler Anderson.
The Halos staff just can’t pitch to this team as we saw with last night’s 11-run outburst, which was also against a lefty starter and then the horrendous LA bullpen. Anderson looks like he’s in trouble here as the Astros roster has a cumulative .352 average and 1.172 OPS against him, plus he has posted a 5.01 ERA on the road this year. Houston is 6-3-2 over this team total against LA this season averaging 6.5 runs per game, and I think they jump all over bad pitching again tonight.
MLB (1.2 Unit) Colorado Rockies/LA Dodgers Over 9 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 8:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA
If Tony Gonsolin is pitching, I’m looking for a way to fade him. But since the Rockies are also sending a bad starter out for this game, I think it results in plenty of runs. Once the inevitable regression monster came for Gonsolin, he’s posted a 6.89 ERA in his past 9 starts. He’s been worse at home this season, and will face a Colorado lineup that’s been very competitive recently but ran into hot pitching the past couple nights.
And the Dodgers showed last night that they’re primed to break out of a lull offensively after a couple light-hitting games. Facing Peter Lambert will definitely help with that, as the Rockies righty simply doesn’t belong in a starting rotation. In his limited experience with the Dodger lineup, Lambert owns a .472 average and 1.431 OPS, so I’m seeing the LA bats do plenty to help push this game over the number.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on FS1
This just has a lot to do with the number, as I expected to see the Mariners juiced up in the first five innings. Instead, standard juice for a red-hot team that’s won the first five innings in 8 straight games seems like a bargain. I hate fading the Orioles, but with Cole Irvin getting the start it’s obvious Baltimore isn’t sending their best today as the lefty had been relegated to the bullpen. George Kirby runs hot and cold for Seattle, but with the M’s on a hot streak in general, I’ll count on them to extend the streak at this generous price.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens -5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NFL Network
The Ravens to win in the preseason like they’ve done for 23 straight games has the look of the safest bet in the world. They last lost on September 3rd, 2015, when Lamar Jackson was entering his first year as a starter…..at Louisville! Baltimore is also an insane 19-3-1 ATS in that span, and it seems to be a point of personal pride for the entire organization at this point.
This number has actually come down on word from Eagles coach Nick Sirianni that we might see Jalen Hurts and the starters in this game. I’m suspicious of that being a smoke screen, as Hurts played only a handful of snaps last preseason and they made the Super Bowl, so no need to change the approach. Even so, Ravens coach John Harbaugh will be playing to win and cover late in this game when Philly doesn’t care, so I’ll lay the points here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1445-1279 ATS (+71.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.