Locks
MLB – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI
Laying juice to take the run line with a home team is only worthwhile in cases of extreme dominance by one team, and that’s exactly what we have here. The Milwaukee Brewers now lead the season series with the Pittsburgh Pirates 10-3, and every one of those wins has been a run line cover (they’ve all actually come by a minimum of three runs, so if you dabble in alternate lines that’s something to think about).
I think we have another runaway game tonight as the Brewers have found their offense, scoring 6.1 runs per game since the break and 6.5 per game against the Pirates this season. They’ll face newly-acquired Bryse Wilson tonight who gets hit hard by everyone, allowing a .320 average and .886 OPS this season.
The weak Pittsburgh offense that’s scored 1.6 runs per game in the last 8 versus Milwaukee simply won’t be able to keep up, especially against Eric Lauer who owns a 1.93 ERA against the Pirates this season. I expect the Brew Crew dominance to continue tonight, so I’ll accept standard juice as a good enough reason to lay this home team run line.
MLB – San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-120) @ Arizona Diamondbacks: 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports AZ
The San Francisco Giants have shown in the past week why they’re for real, taking two of three from both of the top World Series favorites, and now face a Triple-A team masquerading as the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The pitching matchup really favors San Fran here as their starter Anthony DeSclafani has owned Diamondbacks hitters over his career, with a .117 average and .378 OPS allowed. He also has a 2.03 ERA against the Snakes this season in two comfortable Giants wins.
The Giants offense, equipped with new toy Kris Bryant, should have no trouble getting to Arizona starter Taylor Widener who owns a 7.82 ERA in July and has been getting crushed in his home park this season. Arizona’s 7-7 record since the All-Star Break has been inflated by facing some fellow bad teams, and their true selves re-emerged in getting outscored 26-9 by the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend.
Count me as a believer in San Francisco overall, and in them covering another run line against this bad Diamondbacks team.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 339-241 ATS (+83.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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