MLB (0.5 Unit) San Diego Padres/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9 (-110): 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports AZ
The season series between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks has been pretty evenly split between overs and unders, but there’s plenty of reason to believe this game will be one of the overs. Chris Paddack starting for San Diego is a big factor, as the Diamondbacks seem to have him figured out with 10 runs scored in his 12 innings of work against them. Arizona has been improving at the plate, so they should be able to get some runs against Paddack and an overworked Padres bullpen.
I also see San Diego righting a wrong in this game, as the last time they faced Tyler Gilbert he no-hit them in his first career start. The regression came quickly for Gilbert with a 1.60 WHIP in the two starts since his historic debut, and the Padres should have the opportunity to atone for the embarrassment. Both these teams can be wildly inconsistent, but the matchup and situation tell me runs are coming.
Bonus Bet: (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks +155
The tailspin that the Padres are currently in certainly doesn’t look like it’s letting up any time soon. They’re now on a 3-13 run that coincidentally started when they lost 3 of 4 in Arizona. For as bad as the Diamondbacks have looked at times this season, they’re only 7-9 against San Diego, and given their success against Paddack I think they’re a live dog here.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 365-263 ATS (+84.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.